Erling Haaland Has Norway in the Quarterfinals. England Plans to Stop Him.

There’s a real chance Norway makes this the most uncomfortable Saturday afternoon for England since the penalty shootout against France. This isn’t 1998 anymore. That was the last time Norway even made the Round of 16. Now they’re in the quarterfinals after beating Brazil 2-0, and Erling Haaland has seven goals in the tournament. Seven.

England’s path here has been bumpier than expected. They needed a 3-2 win at the Estadio Azteca to get past Mexico, a place where visiting teams have lost only three competitive games in nearly 90 years. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham did the work there, and Thomas Tuchel’s squad has looked more dangerous as the knockout rounds progress. But Norway is a different kind of problem.

How Norway matches up

Norway’s game plan isn’t complicated. Get the ball to Haaland in central spaces near the box and let him finish. He’s not a guy who drifts wide or drops deep to dictate play. He hangs around the penalty area, makes quick movements, and trusts Martin Odegaard to find him. Odegaard has been the engine in midfield, connecting possession to Haaland’s runs. That partnership is why Norway beat Brazil. England’s central defenders, likely John Stones and Marc Guehi, will have to be sharp for 90 minutes. One lapse and Haaland will bury it.

Norway also had a sickness bug running through the camp. Coughing, fatigue, the whole thing. But the team doctor cleared every player for this match, so the same lineup that started against Brazil should be available.

England has its own injury questions. Jordan Henderson hurt himself during postgame celebrations after the Mexico win. Reece James is still out with a hamstring issue and missed that match too. Declan Rice and Marc Guehi have minor knocks but are expected to play.

Why England should be nervous but still favored

DraftKings has England at -105 on the three-way moneyline and -195 to advance. Norway is +280 to win in regulation and +155 to move on. The betting market respects the upset potential but isn’t betting on it.

Tuchel has built this team to let Kane be more than just a striker. Kane drops deep, finds runners, and creates chances. That opens up space for Bellingham to play like he did in his first season at Real Madrid, roaming forward and finishing chances. Bellingham’s goal against Mexico was the result of that freedom. England has the deeper bench, the better individual talent, and a defensive structure that has mostly held up.

But Norway has the best pure scorer in the tournament right now. That changes the math. England can control possession and create more chances, but one moment of Haaland brilliance flips everything.

This feels like a 3-2 game. England has the firepower to outscore anyone, and Norway’s defense isn’t elite. Kane and Bellingham should find the net again. Haaland will likely get his too. The question is whether Norway’s supporting cast can produce enough to keep pace. Against Brazil they did. Against England, it’s a taller ask.

Norway’s run has been a genuine surprise. Making the quarterfinals after 26 years away is a story in itself. But England came here to win the whole thing, and they’ve got the weapons to get past this round.

Final pick: England to win, under 2.5 goals.