The Twins Say They Aren’t Trading Byron Buxton. Here’s Why There’s Still a 10% Chance.

The Minnesota Twins are stuck. They’re 44-47, sitting third in the AL Central, and four games out of first place. They’re also just a game and a half back of the final Wild Card spot. So are they buyers or sellers? Depends on who you ask.

General manager Jeremy Zoll has been pretty clear: Byron Buxton isn’t going anywhere. “It’s not something we’re exploring,” Zoll said. “It’s not something we plan to explore.” Buxton himself told reporters on June 18 that he’s “a Twin.” That seems definitive.

But ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel aren’t closing the door entirely. They recently updated the odds of a Buxton trade from “unlikely” (30%) to “extremely unlikely” (10%). That 10% is the key. It’s not zero. And in baseball, where one desperate phone call can change everything, that tiny sliver of possibility matters.

Why someone might still call

Buxton is having another monster season. He’s hitting .271 with a .904 OPS, 25 home runs and 45 RBIs. He just made his third All-Star team, his second in a row. He’s a guy who can beat you with his bat or his legs, and even with the injury history, teams dream on that kind of talent.

The counterargument is that he’s been a Twin his whole career. Drafted in 2012. Broke in during 2015. Played 973 games for Minnesota. That kind of loyalty is rare. And the Twins reportedly don’t want to be the team that ships him out.

But Passan and McDaniel didn’t completely rule it out because stranger things have happened. All it takes is one team deciding they’re one piece away and offering a package Minnesota can’t refuse. A prospect haul. Salary relief. A mix that makes the front office think about the future instead of the present.

The Twins aren’t dead yet

Here’s the thing about that 44-47 record. The AL Central is wide open. The White Sox are only four games ahead. The Rangers are only a game and a half ahead for the last Wild Card. If the Twins go on a run before the July 30 deadline, the whole conversation shifts. Suddenly they’re not sellers. Suddenly Buxton is the guy they build around for a playoff push.

So the 10% number is real. But it’s also fragile. It could drop to zero with a five-game winning streak. Or it could spike if the Twins lose eight of ten and a contender comes calling with a blockbuster offer. That’s where we are. A team that can’t decide what it wants to be, and a star who still has the power to change the entire deadline.