It’s been three playoff games. Three losses. Zero wins. And yet, ask around the NFL what they think of Justin Herbert, and you’ll get a different story than the box score suggests.
An ESPN survey of executives, coaches and scouts placed Herbert among the league’s top quarterbacks. He showed up on nearly 80 percent of ballots. That’s not a fluke. That’s a league-wide bet that talent trumps a tiny sample of postseason failure.
One NFC scout made it plain: the Chargers offensive coordinator opening was “the best one available because of the quarterback.”
That job went to Greg Roman, who inherits a quarterback coming off a season where he led the NFL with 10 touchdown passes thrown from outside the pocket. Herbert can make something out of nothing. The question has always been whether the offense around him can make the easy stuff look easy.
Mike McDaniel’s system — which Roman is expected to borrow concepts from — should help with that. More layup completions. More first downs that don’t require a scramble and a laser throw. The idea is to let Herbert operate efficiently instead of heroically. Because the hero stuff is great for highlights but hasn’t won a playoff game.
Herbert’s numbers are insane. The wins aren’t there yet.
Since the Chargers took him sixth overall in 2020, Herbert has rewritten the rookie record book. Offensive Rookie of the Year. Most passing yards through four seasons in NFL history. Most completions in that span too. He signed a $262.5 million extension as the franchise anchor.
Entering Year 7, you won’t find anyone questioning his arm talent, his toughness or his ability to create when the pocket collapses. The criticism is simpler: zero postseason wins. That’s it. That’s the knock.
And the league still hasn’t flinched in its belief. Because the tape says what the win-loss column doesn’t. On almost every throw, Herbert shows the kind of raw ability that makes evaluators think the wins will come. Eventually.
One scout told ESPN he’d rather start a franchise with Herbert than most of the guys who’ve actually won playoff games. That’s how strong the conviction is.
The Chargers have the regular-season promise part down. They’ve been one of the league’s better teams on paper for years. The next step — the step that keeps Herbert in the MVP conversation and out of the “can he win the big one” discourse — is turning that promise into January football that actually means something.
If Roman and the new scheme can get Herbert throwing to open receivers on schedule instead of improvising on every other snap, the playoff drought might finally end. If not, the 0-3 record will keep getting louder than the arm talent.

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