Joel Klatt ranks Arch Manning second behind Dante Moore. That’s a bet on Oregon’s star.

Joel Klatt has seen the Arch Manning hype. He just isn’t buying it at No. 1.

The FOX Sports analyst released his offseason quarterback rankings this week and slotted Manning at No. 2 among returning 2026 quarterbacks. Sitting ahead of him? Oregon’s Dante Moore, a guy who could have been a top-five NFL Draft pick last spring and decided to come back for another year in Eugene.

Klatt’s take is straightforward: Moore earned it. He was one of the best players in the sport last season, and his decision to return gives Oregon a legitimate Heisman candidate and a potential No. 1 overall pick in 2027. That résumé is hard to argue with.

But ranking Manning behind anyone feels like it could age poorly.

Why Klatt’s ranking has legs

Manning wasn’t great early last season. Texas lost to Ohio State and Florida in part because of his inconsistency. He was a preseason Heisman favorite based on potential and his last name, but the actual product was messy. A big arm and elite athleticism only go so far when you’re missing reads or holding the ball a beat too long.

Then something clicked late in the season. Manning started making plays from the pocket. His frame and ability to extend plays started to match the execution. The raw talent that got him so much buzz finally started looking like real production.

Sarkisian has built a machine around him. Star receiver Cam Coleman is headed to Austin to pair with Ryan Wingo on the outside. The offensive line should be strong. If Manning keeps progressing as a passer and combines that with his running ability, the ceiling is national championship or bust.

The Dante Moore argument

Moore was a top recruit out of high school himself. He transferred from UCLA to Oregon and immediately looked like a first-round talent. His arm strength, decision-making, and ability to handle pressure were all elite last season. Klatt’s ranking reflects that Moore has already done what Manning is still trying to prove he can do at a high level for a full season.

Klatt isn’t wrong to put Moore first. But the gap is narrow. And if Manning takes another step forward this fall, that No. 2 ranking will look like a conservative bet.

For now, Texas fans can feel good about their quarterback being in the conversation. The hype is real this time. The question is whether Manning can turn it into a playoff run.