The World Cup semifinals are here, and somehow England and Argentina both look inevitable. But only one can survive Wednesday night in Atlanta.
England comes in as the slight favorite, which says something when you’re facing the defending champions. The oddsmakers have it at +155 for England, +205 for Argentina, and +200 for a draw in regulation. This is the first time in a long time the English have walked into a massive game like this as the betting pick.
Both teams are 5-0 in their last five. Both have stars who’ve delivered in the clutch. But the paths here were completely different.
England had to grind through Norway. Jude Bellingham scored two more goals to pull them back from a deficit, and they kept Erling Haaland quiet all night. It wasn’t pretty, but Thomas Tuchel’s side found a way. Again.
Argentina had it easier against Switzerland, if you can call any knockout game easy. Alexis Mac Allister scored in the 10th minute, Dan Ndoye equalized in the 72nd, and then Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez finished it off in extra time. Routine enough for Lionel Scaloni’s squad, but they haven’t looked as sharp as England has in spurts.
What the injury reports look like
Tuchel has almost a full roster to work with. Declan Rice had a bug scare but is reportedly fine. Jordan Henderson is out — he hurt himself during a celebration after the Mexico game, which is such a Henderson thing to do. He hasn’t played all tournament anyway.
Argentina’s Lionel Messi picked up an eye injury against Switzerland but should be good to go. Cristian Romero and Leandro Paredes both got subbed out late due to fatigue, but Scaloni says they’re fine. The defending champs have a fully fit squad.
The matchup that matters
Both teams defend high. Both have shown they can dig in when needed. But this tournament has been won by attackers, and that’s probably not changing here.
Argentina’s center back pair of Lisandro Martinez and Romero will have their hands full with Harry Kane. The Bayern Munich striker has six goals so far, two behind Kylian Mbappe in the Golden Boot race. Kane has been pulling strings as much as scoring, and Bellingham has been the engine beside him.
Bellingham has delivered at every moment so far. He’s the kind of player who rises in the big moments, and this is the biggest moment England has seen since the last final.
Messi is 38. He can still find magic — Argentina has needed it repeatedly in this tournament — but he’s not at his mercurial best every game. England’s squad is deeper, younger, and hitting its stride.
Prediction
Tuchel was frustrated after the Norway win. He said he knows this team can blow opponents away, and he wants to see it. That probably doesn’t happen against a possession-dominant Argentina side, but we should see enough.
Expect a low-scoring, physical game. The defensive lines will make life miserable for attackers in the first half. But someone breaks through late. Maybe Bellingham. Maybe Kane. Maybe Messi reminds everyone he’s still here.
England wins 3-2, with Bellingham providing the spark again. England to advance at -135. Under 2.5 goals at -160. That feels right for a game that tight.
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