The Minnesota Twins walked into the All-Star Break with a 9-4 stretch over their last 13 games, tied with the Seattle Mariners for the American League’s final Wild Card spot, and just three games back of the division lead. That’s not what anyone expected from a team that was supposed to be buried in the AL Central alongside the White Sox.
But here’s the thing about expectations in that division: they don’t matter much. The Guardians and White Sox have been playing above their heads. The Tigers are still figuring things out. And the Twins, despite a rotation that ranks 24th in ERA and an offense that has leaned heavily on one guy, are very much in the mix.
That guy is Byron Buxton.
Buxton is 12 years into his Twins tenure and has been hurt in nine of those seasons. He’s also an All-Star starter who had to pull out of the game because of a hip strain, and he’s got 25 home runs already. When he’s healthy — and the team expects him back in a couple of weeks — he’s a center fielder who can run down anything, steal a base on any pitcher, and hit 40 homers. That kind of player doesn’t grow on trees, and the Twins know it.
Owner Tom Pohlad has been saying the right things. “We’ve got to be competitive consistently,” he told Dan Hayes of The Athletic. “And that’s a baseline. Then we’ve got to be willing to make investments and make bold moves that allow us to be successful in the playoffs.”
That’s not just owner-speak. Pohlad knows the fan base is tired. The Twins have been mediocre for years, and attendance has suffered. Trading Buxton would be a signal that nothing has changed. So the front office has to do the opposite: hold him and buy at the deadline.
Buxton has made it clear he wants to stay. That doesn’t mean other teams won’t call. They will. The offers might be tempting. But moving him now would torpedo the credibility Pohlad is trying to build.
The one trade that actually makes sense
The Twins do have a trade chip that could bring back pitching help without gutting the roster. Catcher Ryan Jeffers is healthy again after breaking a hamate bone in mid-May. He was reinstated July 10 and is slashing .292/.404/.538 with seven homers and 28 RBIs in 39 games. That’s a solid bat from a position where most teams struggle to get production.
The thing is, the Twins have depth behind him. Victor Caratini has been fine, hitting .240 with a .333 OBP and 35 RBIs. Alex Jackson has been even better in limited at-bats, batting .296. Moving Jeffers wouldn’t create a hole — it would just change who’s catching.
And starting pitching is the obvious need. Joe Ryan was mentioned as a possible trade piece earlier in the season, but that idea looks dead now. The Twins can’t afford to subtract from a rotation that’s already near the bottom of the league in ERA. Jeffers could be the bait to land an arm who can help immediately.
The math is pretty simple here. Hold Buxton, deal from depth, and see if this team can hang around. The division is weak. The Wild Card is wide open. And for the first time in a while, the Twins have a reason to act like they believe in what they’re building.
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