A year ago, the Seattle Mariners came within one win of the American League pennant. They took a 3-1 lead in the ALCS against Toronto. Then they lost Games 5, 6 and 7. That hurts weeks after it happens and it still hurts now.
This year, the Mariners are sitting in first place in the AL West, but barely. They’re 39-38. In most seasons that record would put you a few games back. But the AL West has been weaker than expected, so Seattle is hanging by its fingernails atop the division. They’ve got the pitching to run away with it if the bats wake up and the bullpen locks down.
And that bullpen is the problem right now. Andres Munoz has the job of closer. He’s got 12 saves and 39 strikeouts in 26.1 innings, which sounds nasty. But he’s walked 13 batters and owns a 5.47 ERA with a negative WAR. That’s a problem for manager Dan Wilson, especially when your starters are giving leads into the seventh or eighth inning. You can only waste so many good starts before it costs you wins.
That’s where Aroldis Chapman comes in. The Red Sox closer is 38 years old and somehow still throwing absolute smoke. Last year he was an All-Star with 32 saves, a 1.17 ERA, 85 strikeouts and just 15 walks over 61.1 innings. Maybe the best year of his whole career. This year, despite the Red Sox being in last place at 30-43 and rarely giving him a save situation, Chapman has a 0.83 ERA with 14 saves and 29 strikeouts in 21.2 innings. That’s not a fluke.
Part of his improvement came from a simple change. When he gets a pitch call through the PitchCom device, it tells him exactly where to throw it — inside fastball, low slider, whatever. Before that, he used to just get the sign for a fastball and try to fire it down the middle. Now he’s hitting spots. The command is better than it has been in years.
The Mariners have the starters to make a real run. They’ve got arms that can shut down any lineup in the league. But without a reliable closer, all that good work can disappear in one inning. Chapman has one year left on his contract at $13 million, with an opt-out clause. He’s worth every penny of that or more this season.
Boston general manager Craig Breslow is going to get calls on Chapman from multiple teams. The Red Sox are selling, and Chapman is the most valuable piece they have. They’ll want a bat in return. Seattle has some pieces they could move — maybe Randy Arozarena or Luke Raley. The most natural fit might be Cole Young, a second baseman with 6 homers and 34 RBI. If the Mariners include a prospect and a draft pick, that could be enough to get it done.
The Mariners have the pitching to go deep in October. They just need someone to close the door when the lights are brightest. Chapman has been doing that for 17 years. He could be the missing piece that finally gets Seattle over the hump.
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