Trevor Lawrence’s 60.9% Completion Rate Hides a Deeper Problem in Jacksonville

The Jacksonville Jaguars got their quarterback to a 13-4 record in 2025. Trevor Lawrence threw for 4,007 yards and 29 touchdowns. But if you watched the games you probably saw it: a perfectly placed pass hitting the turf because a receiver couldn’t hold on.

Pro Football Focus had the stat that tells the story. The Jaguars dropped 40 catchable passes out of 417 targets. That’s a 9.6% drop rate, the highest in the entire NFL.

Think about what that actually means for a second. Liam Coen draws up a play that works. The receiver beats his man. The offensive line gives Lawrence all day. The ball hits the receiver right in the hands. And then it’s on the ground. A 20-yard gain turns into a loss of down. Drive dead. Momentum gone.

That completion percentage of 60.9%? If those receivers had caught even half of those drops, Lawrence would have been sitting closer to 65%. Small difference on paper. Huge difference in how an offense functions.

Brian Thomas Jr. was the biggest culprit

For all the promise Thomas showed as a rookie Pro Bowler in 2024 when he went for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns, last season was a step back. He tied for second in the NFL with 10 dropped passes. His targets dropped by 42 from his rookie year. He finished with 48 catches for 707 yards and just two touchdowns.

The Jaguars still plan to roll with him as WR1 this season. Behind him you’ve got Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington and part-time receiver Travis Hunter. Washington tied for 11th in the league with seven drops himself.

So the guy Lawrence needs to throw to the most is also the guy most likely to let him down. That’s not a recipe for getting your quarterback into the top-10 conversation.

And speaking of that conversation: Sports Illustrated ranked Lawrence 16th among NFL quarterbacks. That put him ahead of Daniel Jones and C.J. Stroud in the AFC South, but the write-up was basically a backhanded compliment. Nothing about being great, just about being better than the other guys in the division.

One AFC offensive coach told ESPN a more honest version of the story: Lawrence controlled his turnovers and started understanding what defenses wanted to do. But that coach also pointed out something important. Lawrence plays best when the infrastructure around him sets him up, not when he’s asked to carry everything himself.

Coen’s system helped with that. Lawrence dropped to 21st in average time to throw as he learned to be more patient and let routes develop. His PFF passing grade went above 80.0 for the first time in his career.

The Jaguars pass catchers did produce 32 receiving touchdowns, tied for seventh in the league. They averaged 11.7 yards per reception and had 57 contested catches, both top-10 marks. So the talent is there.

But talent doesn’t matter if the ball keeps hitting the ground. Coen got off to a great start as head coach. Whether that continues depends on whether the guys catching the ball can actually hold onto it.