The San Jose Sharks kicked off NHL free agency with a splash. They signed defenseman Jacob Trouba to a four-year contract worth $33 million, carrying an $8.25 million cap hit. For a team that’s still building, it was a bold move. Maybe too bold.
Trouba is 32 years old. He’s a right-shot, physical defenseman who spent last season with the Anaheim Ducks alongside Jackson LaCombe. That pairing worked. It helped the Ducks upset the Edmonton Oilers in the first round of the playoffs. Trouba put up 10 goals and 25 assists in 2025-26, his best offensive season in years. But a deeper look at the numbers suggests this deal could age badly.
Shayna Goldman of The Athletic called it a serious misstep for a team whose competitive window isn’t even open yet. And she’s not alone. The issue isn’t that Trouba can’t play. It’s that he might already be in decline, and the Sharks are paying him like he’s still in his prime.
What Trouba brings to San Jose
The Sharks have a young, exciting forward group. Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith are stars. Michael Misa and Ivar Stenberg, the No. 2 pick in the 2026 draft, are on the way. But before Trouba, the Sharks had only four defensemen under contract, one of them being newly acquired Michael Kesselring. They needed bodies on the blue line. Trouba fills that hole immediately.
He also brings leadership. He was captain of the New York Rangers and won the Mark Messier Leadership Award in 2024. The Sharks have young leaders like Celebrini, but adding a veteran presence who can set a physical tone matters. Trouba throws massive hits. He can change a game’s energy with one shift. The Sharks didn’t have a defenseman who could do that.
And the future of their defense is still developing. Ryan Lin and Keaton Verhoeff are promising 18-year-old first-round picks from 2026. Dmitry Orlov’s contract expires after this season. There’s room for those kids to grow into bigger roles without being rushed. Trouba can buy them time.
Why the contract is hard to defend
But here’s the problem. Trouba has lost a step. When he lines up for one of those bone-rattling hits, he goes all in. That leaves him out of position too often. It worked in Anaheim because LaCombe was fast enough to cover for him. The Sharks don’t have a LaCombe. Darnell Nurse can’t make up that ground. Sam Dickinson is young and talented but not that kind of rover.
This looks a lot like Trouba’s Rangers years, when the big hits came with blown assignments and odd-man rushes the other way.
There’s also the underlying numbers. Since the 2013-14 season, Trouba’s teams have had a positive expected goals differential in only five of 13 seasons. Last season with the Ducks, he was basically break-even. The Ducks generated 3.06 expected goals per 60 minutes with Trouba on the ice and allowed 3.00. That’s fine. But the last time his on-ice numbers were clearly positive was 2017-18 with Winnipeg. Seven years ago.
Now you take LaCombe out of the pairing, and Trouba’s numbers almost certainly go negative again. Paying $8.25 million a year for a defenseman who is projected to give up more chances than he creates is a tough pill to swallow.
The Sharks made this move because they needed a veteran presence and a physical defenseman. Those are real needs. But the contract runs four years. Trouba will be 36 when it ends. The positive aspects of this signing will fade as the deal goes on. By Year 3, this could look like a major overpay.
Grade: C-
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