The knockout stage of the 2026 World Cup is already a week old, and the picture is getting clearer by the hour. Ten teams have locked in their spots for the Round of 16. Three more will join them Tuesday, and the matchups are loaded with storylines that go way beyond the scoreboard.
Portugal still hasn’t figured out how to maximize its absurdly deep roster. Spain has looked nothing like the preseason favorite. And Algeria is carrying some serious continental weight. Let’s get into it.
The matches that matter on July 2
Spain vs. Austria — Los Angeles, 3 p.m. ET (FOX, Telemundo)
Odds to advance: Spain -1000, Austria +600
Portugal vs. Croatia — Toronto, 7 p.m. ET (FOX, Telemundo)
Odds to advance: Portugal -300, Croatia +230
Switzerland vs. Algeria — Vancouver, 11 p.m. ET (FOX, Telemundo)
Odds to advance: Switzerland -200, Algeria +160
Spain still looks like a team searching for itself
Look, Spain was the trendy pick to win it all before the tournament. But three games in, and they have not looked like a champion. The 0-0 draw with Cape Verde was alarming. The 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia was expected. The 1-0 nail-biter against Uruguay was just plain disappointing for a team with this much talent.
Injuries are a real problem. Wingers Nico Williams, Yéremy Pino, and Víctor Muñoz are all banged up in different ways. Manager Luis de la Fuente hasn’t landed on a consistent formation yet, and the midfield isn’t clicking the way it should. If they slog through another underwhelming performance against Austria, that’s a red flag heading into a potential matchup with Portugal.
Portugal has a talent gap no one can fix but Roberto Martinez
Portugal might have the best roster in the tournament. Seriously. Go position by position and it’s hard to find a weakness. But their results so far tell a messy story: a 1-1 draw with DR Congo, a 5-0 thrashing of Uzbekistan, and a 0-0 snoozer against Colombia.
The Uzbekistan game showed what this team can do when Cristiano Ronaldo is properly integrated. But Ronaldo is 41 now, and Martinez has a history of not solving these kinds of puzzles. He managed Belgium’s golden generation to a semifinal in 2018, then a quarterfinal at Euro 2020, and then a group stage exit in 2022. That trajectory is not great. Now he has Croatia, an old and gritty team that will absolutely punish indecision.
Algeria is the last real hope for a big African push
Africa put nine teams into the Round of 32. That was a statement. But the knockout stage has been brutal. South Africa, Senegal, DR Congo, and Ivory Coast are already gone. Only Morocco has advanced. Cape Verde is likely headed out against Spain.
So it falls to Algeria, Egypt, and Ghana to carry the continent forward. Algeria has the toughest draw of the three — Switzerland is no joke — but they also have the talent to pull it off. If they can get past the Swiss, they’d set up a Round of 16 meeting that could change the whole narrative around African football at this tournament.
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