The first round of group play is in the books. Forty-eight teams took the field. Twenty-four matches got played. And honestly? Some of the expected superpowers look vulnerable while a few dark horses are already making noise. With 48 games still left before the knockout rounds start, here is how the power structure shakes out after Week 1.
1. Argentina
You don’t lose the crown until somebody pries it off your head. Argentina held serve against Algeria, and Lionel Messi at 38 looked like he’d discovered a time machine. The issue is age. Most of the core from 2022 is still here, which is great for chemistry but bad for mileage. If Messi keeps playing like this, they stay on top. But this is a long tournament. Father Time stays undefeated eventually.
2. France
France walked into this tournament and immediately looked like the most complete team in the field. Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele. That’s three attackers who could be the best player on almost any other team in the world. Mbappe especially has that thing where he plays bigger for France than he does for Real Madrid. No age crisis. No injury nightmare like Spain has. No historical baggage like England. If you want to put France at No. 1, that’s not a bad take at all.
3. England
England has the best striker on the planet in Harry Kane and about six other attackers who can hurt you. Jude Bellingham, Morgan Rogers, Noni Madueke, Anthony Gordon, Marcus Rashford, Bukayo Saka. They looked almost unfair in their first match. The defense hasn’t been seriously tested yet and Jordan Pickford is always one brain-fart away from disaster. But the talent on this side is more cohesive than any England squad in decades. That makes them dangerous.
4. Spain
Spain always starts slow at World Cups. In 2010 they lost their opener to Switzerland and still won the whole thing. So a 0-0 draw with tiny Cabo Verde and its 40-year-old goalkeeper is not a death sentence. But it’s not nothing either. Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams started on the bench, which hints at a health concern. If those two aren’t right, Spain has a real problem. For now they’re still a legit semifinal contender.
5. Portugal
Portugal has a Cristiano Ronaldo problem. They’re one of the deepest teams in the tournament. This writer picked them to win it all before the opening match. But starting Ronaldo and playing him 90 minutes is not a winning formula at this point in his career. Roberto Martinez has already said he won’t bench his most famous player. That anchor could sink this whole thing. But since benching Ronaldo is such an obvious fix, Portugal stays in the top five for now.
6. Norway
Norway has Erling Haaland. And also? They have Erling Haaland. He scored twice in the opener and Norway made easy work of Iraq. The supporting cast is better than people give them credit for, but let’s be honest. Haaland is the reason this team is here. They have a massive group match against France coming up. That should tell us a lot about whether Norway is a real threat or just a one-man show.
7. Germany
This is not your dad’s German team. No dominant midfield metronome like Ballack or Matthaus. No elite finisher like Klose or Mueller. But they still have a ton of high-level talent and they demolished Curacao 7-1. Which they should have. Bigger tests are coming. But they handled business in their first game and that deserves some respect.
8. USMNT
Call it home-country bias if you want. But if the USMNT plays the way they did against Paraguay, there’s no reason they can’t reach the quarterfinals. Christian Pulisic’s health is a real question mark. But this squad has enough depth to survive losing even their best player. The wild card is Mauricio Pochettino. U.S. Soccer has spent the entire century hiring boring conservative American managers. Poch brings actual modern European tactics. That’s a massive upgrade.
9. Netherlands
Netherlands played a tense 2-2 draw with Japan. They went up twice. They conceded twice. Two points dropped. But Oranje has talent at every level and Virgil van Dijk is still an incredible leader. The issue is what comes next. Whether they finish first or second in Group F, their first knockout opponent is probably Brazil, Morocco, or Scotland. None of those teams are in these top 10. But if we added a couple more spots, they would be close.
10. Japan
Most of what we just said about the Netherlands applies to Japan too. They’re not as talented offensively. But they are organized, they have incredible counterattacking speed, and they showed real mental toughness against the Dutch. It’s easy to see Japan making the quarterfinals. But the matchups are tough. Regardless of how far they go, make time to watch them play. This is a fun team that plays the game the right way.
Leave a Comment