The 2026 World Cup knockout stage is already delivering chaos, and Tuesday’s slate in North America might be the wildest day yet. Canada already punched through with a last-gasp winner against South Africa, and now the round of 32 rolls into Houston with Brazil taking on Japan at NRG Stadium. On paper, this one looks lopsided. The five-time champions have lost only once in 14 meetings with Japan and have won all four of their World Cup games against AFC teams. But paper doesn’t always matter in single-elimination soccer.
Japan has never won a World Cup knockout match. Zero for four. The last one hurt especially bad, a 2010 exit to Paraguay, a South American side they could see again later in this tournament. But here’s where it gets interesting. The Samurai Blue actually beat Brazil the last time they played, back in October. Yeah, it was just a friendly. But that win exists in the locker room and in the minds of Hajime Moriyasu’s players. And after scoring draws against the Netherlands and Sweden in group play, Japan proved they can hang with top-tier competition.
Carlo Ancelotti has a loaded Brazil squad, and for the first time in this tournament, Neymar is expected to start. He came off the bench against Scotland and looked sharp. Brazil’s all-time leading scorer hasn’t found the net for the national team since September 2023, which feels like forever for a guy who’s worshipped across the country. Vinicius Junior has been the star so far, with a chance to become the first Brazilian since Rivaldo and Ronaldo in 2002 to score in each of the team’s first four World Cup matches. That’s the kind of company that gets your attention.
Morocco’s trap game potential
Over in the other half of the bracket, Morocco is lurking as a serious threat to pull off another deep run. Remember 2022? The Atlas Lions bulldozed their way to the semifinals and became Africa’s favorite team. This year, they held Brazil to a 1-1 draw in group play, then came from behind to beat Haiti 4-2. That comeback was a first for Morocco at a World Cup. Feyenoord striker Ayase Ueda has already drawn Premier League interest with two goals in this tournament, and he’s on the verge of becoming the first Asian player to score three or more times at a single World Cup. Daichi Kamada could join him in that club.
Morocco’s next test is the Netherlands, a team they lost to 2-1 way back in 1994. Ronald Koeman’s Dutch side has been steady, topping Group F after a slow start and extending their unbeaten run to 11 matches. But the Netherlands have a history of getting tripped up by teams that shouldn’t beat them, and Morocco has the pace and organizational discipline to make that happen again.
Germany also has a chance to shake off years of knockout-stage failure. Julian Nagelsmann’s team hasn’t advanced past the group stage since winning the whole thing in 2014. They clinched early this time, then took their foot off the gas and lost to Ecuador. That loss snapped a four-match winning streak against South American teams, but the Germans are still heavy favorites against Paraguay. The big question is whether they can actually keep a clean sheet. They haven’t done that in a World Cup match since the 2014 final against Argentina. Paraguay, for their part, has scored just 0.66 goals per game in this tournament and didn’t manage a single shot on target against Australia. Something has to give.
The knockout rounds are unpredictable by design. Brazil is the favorite. Japan is the dreamer. And somewhere in between, Morocco and Germany are trying to write their own redemption stories. That’s what makes this stage of the World Cup worth staying up for.
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