The Minnesota Twins just got handed a decision they weren’t ready for. Byron Buxton is on the 10-day IL with a right hip strain, out of the All-Star Game he earned a starting spot in, and his team sits at 44-47. That’s four games back in the AL Central and 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. Close enough to tempt you. Bad enough to scare you.
The Twins have a -17 run differential, which is the kind of number that usually belongs to teams already packing for October from their couch. But the division is still right there. The White Sox are in first place at 48-43. The Guardians are in between. It’s not impossible. It’s just uncomfortably tight, and Buxton’s absence squeezes the margin for error down to almost nothing.
The sell-off instinct is there. But is it smart?
A .500-ish team in July with a star player hurt usually gets a phone call from the front office about moving pieces. But the Twins aren’t bad enough to justify a fire sale. They’re third in the Central, within striking distance of the final Wild Card, and selling now would mean giving up on a season that hasn’t actually slipped away yet. You don’t trade away core guys in early July when you’re four games back unless you’re absolutely sure the season is dead. This team is not dead. It’s just limping.
The bullpen is the biggest red flag outside of Buxton’s health. Minnesota’s relievers entered Friday with a 5.37 ERA. That’s not a small fix. That’s a structural problem that needs multiple arms, not one rental who might help for six weeks. And Buxton’s injury makes the outfield depth look thin in a hurry. He was hitting .271 with 25 homers and 45 RBI. That production doesn’t just get replaced by moving a guy over from left field.
The soft buy is the only play that makes sense
So here’s what the Twins should actually do. Go get bullpen help. Multiple arms. Find outfielders who can handle center field. Target controllable players who will still be around after 2026. Avoid the flashy rental bats. Do not trade away top prospects for a team that is still under .500. If a deal asks for the best guys in the farm system, hang up the phone.
Buxton’s injury should change how aggressive the front office is, not which direction they’re headed. The next two or three weeks will decide everything. If the Twins can stay within range of the Wild Card and improve the run prevention even modestly, they can hang around without gutting the future. If they fall apart, then you pivot to selling. But right now, the right call is a soft buy. Targeted help. No panic. And no pretending this team is one superstar away.
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