The San Diego Padres are sitting at 48-48. That’s not good. They’re 12.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West, and catching Los Angeles this season would take a miracle the size of Petco Park. A Wild Card spot is technically possible but still a real long shot. They’re 3.5 games out with three teams ahead of them for the last spot.
So naturally, trade rumors are swirling. And one name keeps popping up: Mason Miller.
Here’s the thing. The Padres gave up a ton to get Miller last year. We’re talking Leo De Vries, who is now the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball. The 19-year-old shortstop is hitting .286 with 11 homers, 39 RBIs, 31 steals, and an OPS of .809 for Oakland’s Double-A affiliate. That’s the kind of prospect you build a franchise around.
And they traded him for a reliever. A really, really good reliever. But still.
Why Trading Miller is a Bad Bet
Miller is 27 years old and the most dominant relief pitcher in the game right now. His fastball is basically unfair. His slider makes hitters look silly. He’s under team control through arbitration for three more years, and his salary this season is just $4 million. According to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Miller’s arbitration path looks a lot like Josh Hader’s: $4.1 million, then $6.675 million, then $11 million, then $14.1 million. That’s expensive but still a bargain for a guy who can shorten playoff games to eight innings.
The problem is, the Padres aren’t making the playoffs this year unless their bats wake up in a serious way. But they want to compete. They’re not rebuilding. General manager AJ Preller is famously aggressive, sometimes unpredictably so. One American League executive told MLB.com, “As far as AJ goes, the only thing I know is I don’t know.”
Another NL executive said, “They have to consider it if they keep playing like this. They won’t get De Vries-type value back for him, but they’ll still do well if they trade him.”
But here’s the catch. Who’s going to give up a top-5 prospect for a reliever? The Brewers have Jesús Made, the No. 1 prospect in baseball, and he’s hitting .276 with nine homers and 58 RBIs. The Nationals have Eli Willits at No. 3. Neither team is in a position to trade that kind of asset for a bullpen arm. Milwaukee’s bullpen is already solid. Washington isn’t competing yet.
So Preller would be trading Miller for pennies on the dollar compared to what he gave up. That’s not good business.
The Real Reason to Keep Him
Look, the Padres’ lineup has been a letdown this year. Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr. — they’ve all underperformed at times. But that could turn around. If they add a bat and a starter in free agency, they could absolutely knock on the Dodgers’ door in 2027. And when that happens, they’ll need a shutdown closer.
Miller is that guy. He’s under control. He’s just entering his prime. Trading him now would mean spending next year’s trade deadline trying to replace what you already had. It’s a self-inflicted wound.
So no. Don’t trade Mason Miller. Let the season play out. If the bats come alive and the Padres sneak into the postseason, great. Miller makes a four-run lead feel like a sure thing. If they don’t, you still have your closer for the next run. That’s the smart play.
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