Argentina is rolling. After a 3-0 win over Algeria in their Group J opener, Lionel Messi did something no other player has done in World Cup history — he tied Miroslav Klose’s all-time record of 16 goals with a hat trick in his sixth World Cup appearance. That’s not a typo. Sixth. And he’s still out there, playing at a level that makes you wonder if Father Time just decided to leave him alone.
Now Argentina faces Austria, a team that just picked up its first World Cup win in 36 years. Austria beat Jordan 3-1, but it wasn’t as clean as the scoreline suggests. They were tied 1-1 until the 70th minute before a late surge and a stoppage-time goal sealed it. Still, a win is a win, especially for a program that hasn’t had many of them on this stage.
The Messi factor
Everyone spent the weeks before the tournament asking if Messi’s hamstring would hold up. After the Algeria game, that question feels almost silly. He moved like he was 28, not 38. His hat trick wasn’t just stat-padding either. Two of his goals came in tight spaces where he had no business finishing. But he did. Because he’s Messi.
Argentina is the betting favorite to win Group J at -700 and has the fourth-best odds to win the whole thing at +800. That makes sense. They’ve won five straight matches and look like the kind of team that can wear you down with possession and then kill you with one pass.
Austria’s real test
Getting past Jordan was important, but Austria knows this is different. They’re missing midfielder Christoph Baumgartner (thigh injury) and might be without defender Stefan Posch, who broke his jaw against Jordan but avoided surgery. His status for this match is unclear.
What Austria does well is defend in packs. They swarm the ball and try to clog passing lanes. That approach works against teams that need time on the ball. Argentina doesn’t need time. They move it fast, they move it sharp, and they’ve got runners who will punish a defense that overcommits.
What to expect Tuesday
This has the feel of a game where Austria hangs around for a half, maybe even grabs a goal on a counter, and then Argentina adjusts and pulls away. Coach Lionel Scaloni has shown he can read a game and flip it at halftime. The path to an Austria win here is narrow. A draw feels like the ceiling for them.
Oddsmakers see it the same way. Argentina is listed at -160 to win. The over/under sits at 2.5 goals, with the over priced at -105.
The smart money is on Argentina by multiple goals. Messi’s record chase alone gives this game another layer. If he scores twice, he breaks Klose’s record outright. That’s not just a storyline. That’s a moment. And Argentina looks like a team that wants to give him every chance to get there.
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