If you’re looking for a pattern in the Kevin O’Connell era, here it is: the Minnesota Vikings win big one year, stumble the next, and leave everyone wondering which version is real. In 2022 they took the NFC North. In 2023 Kirk Cousins got hurt and everything fell apart. In 2024 they were 14-2 before losing the regular season finale and then the Wild Card game in brutal fashion. Last year they started 4-8, finished 9-8 on a five-game win streak, and wound up with a record that flattered them.
So if the pattern holds, 2026 is the odd-year bounce back. But that requires fixing three problems that derailed 2025. And the biggest one is under center.
Quarterback play has to get real, fast
J.J. McCarthy was not ready last season. That much was obvious. He missed open receivers, especially Justin Jefferson, and nagging injuries didn’t help. O’Connell bet on the second-year QB and lost. So the Vikings went out and got Kyler Murray, the former Arizona Cardinal, in the offseason. He’s supposed to push McCarthy — or replace him entirely.
All signs out of training camp point to Murray winning the job. People close to him think this could be the season he surprises everyone. O’Connell runs a tight ship. He demands precision and optimism and accountability. If that clicks for Murray, the Vikings have a chance. If it doesn’t, the whole thing stalls out.
The defense needs a star, not just hope
Minnesota used two of its first three draft picks on defensive linemen. First-rounder Caleb Banks out of Florida has drawn comparisons to Jalen Carter, but that’s a big tag for a guy who dealt with foot issues in college. Third-round pick Domonique Orange is 6-2 and 320 pounds, built to clog the middle. That’s a lot of pressure on two rookies.
Realistically, the defense runs through Dallas Turner. The third-year linebacker from Alabama led the team with 8.0 sacks last year. He’s shown flashes. Brian Flores needs him to turn those flashes into a full-blown star turn — double-digit sacks, game-wrecking presence, the kind of player opponents have to game-plan around. The supporting cast is solid: Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman, Byron Murphy, Josh Metellus. But Flores can scheme all he wants. If Turner doesn’t take the leap and the rookies don’t contribute, the defense will be average again.
Jefferson has to be Jefferson again
Justin Jefferson is not a diva. That’s rare for a receiver of his caliber. But he’s also not hiding his frustration. Last season he caught 84 passes for 1,048 yards and just 2 touchdowns. The drop-off wasn’t his fault — McCarthy couldn’t get him the ball when he was open, and big plays evaporated. Jefferson never said it publicly, but everyone saw it.
He’s said he wants to be a 2,000-yard receiver. He wants to be the No. 1 receiver in the league, ahead of Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown and the rest. In 2022, O’Connell’s first year, Jefferson led the league in targets (184), catches (128), and yards (1,809) with 8 touchdowns. That’s the standard he’s measuring himself against.
If Murray can get him the ball, Jefferson should bounce back. Jordan Addison is a solid No. 2, and newcomer Juaun Jennings adds depth. Tight end T.J. Hockenson is in a contract year after a quiet 51-438-3 season. The Vikings need more from him too.
The pieces are there. But they don’t mean much if Murray doesn’t deliver, the defensive line doesn’t grow up fast, and Jefferson doesn’t return to form. That’s three big ifs. The pattern says 2026 is their year. Patterns also get broken.
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