The Chicago Cubs have a pitching problem. That’s not really news. What is news is how they might solve it, and according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the answer is probably not going to make anyone in Wrigleyville happy.
Passan laid out a pretty blunt reality on Threads this week. If the Cubs want Tarik Skubal from Detroit or Joe Ryan from Minnesota, they’re going to have to empty out their farm system. And even then, there are no guarantees.
Skubal is having a Cy Young level season for the Tigers, who are surprisingly still in the playoff hunt. Ryan has been steady for a Twins team that leads the AL Central. Neither team is eager to sell. So the idea that Chicago can just swoop in with a mid-tier package and grab an ace? Not happening.
The Matt Shaw question
Passan said the Cubs could maybe swing a deal if third base prospect Matt Shaw is part of the conversation. Shaw is the team’s top position player prospect and a big part of their long-term infield plan. But if Chicago is holding onto right-hander Josiah Hartshorn, which Passan believes they are, the price goes up.
“They’d have to gut their system for either Skubal or Ryan, and I don’t think that’s something they’re willing to do,” Passan wrote. “Maybe if Matt Shaw is part of such a package, they could swing it, but if they’re holding Josiah Hartshorn, it’s going to take more.”
The key unknown here is what Detroit and Minnesota actually want. Are they looking for a smaller package with higher-end prospects? Or do they want volume — a pile of B-level guys who might become big leaguers? That distinction matters a lot for how the Cubs approach this.
What the Cubs are willing to move
Passan said Chicago is open to dealing from both the major league roster and the farm. Hartshorn appears to be off-limits, but pretty much everyone else is available. That includes names like Jaxon Wiggins, Pedro Ramirez, Owen Ayers, Kane Kepley, and Jefferson Rojas.
“They’re willing to deal off their major league and minor league rosters,” Passan said. “While I think Josiah Hartshorn is off-limits, a majority of their prospects will be available, whether that’s Wiggins, Ramirez, Rojas, Kepley, Ayers, etc. The Cubs are going to get at least one starting arm — and, good for them, it’s the most bountiful position on the market.”
So Chicago will add some kind of pitcher before the August 3 deadline. The question is whether it’s a frontline guy like Skubal or Ryan, or someone further down the market. Given the cost of the top arms, it’s probably the latter.
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