Caleb Williams dragged the Chicago Bears back to the playoffs for the first time since 2020. He threw for 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns with just seven picks. That part looks great on paper. The problem is the other 42 percent of his throws.
Williams completed only 58.1 percent of his passes last season. For a quarterback with his arm talent and draft pedigree, that number sits squarely in the “needs work” zone. And according to ESPN’s Seth Walder, it might be the single biggest thing holding the Bears back from becoming a real contender.
The accuracy question isn’t going away
Walder actually went further than just calling completion percentage a concern. He pointed to Next Gen Stats data showing Williams ranked dead last among qualifying quarterbacks in both off-target rate and completion percentage over expected. Not near the bottom. Last.
“If he can bring those numbers just to league average, that would result in a big step for him and the offense,” Walder said. “But that’s a big ‘if.'”
That’s the kind of analysis that stings because it’s real. Williams makes circus throws look routine. He extends plays like a magician. But the routine throws? The ones that need to hit a receiver in stride on a simple curl route? Those are where he’s leaving meat on the bone.
What a jump to average looks like
Here’s the thing — Walder isn’t asking Williams to become Patrick Mahomes. He’s asking him to just be league average on easy stuff. If Williams cleans up those missed throws, his raw production could jump significantly without any change to his style or physical tools.
The Bears won 11 games last season largely on defense and timely runs. They didn’t get peak quarterback play for most of that campaign. Chicago gave up minimal pressure at times and still couldn’t cash in on some of the easier throws the scheme created. That has to be a focus this offseason.
Williams himself has talked about getting sharper mechanically and building more trust with his receivers. The Bears front office clearly believes in him — they’ve invested heavily in the offensive line and skill positions around him. But the onus is on the quarterback to make the simple throws look simple.
No one doubts he has the arm. The question is whether he has the discipline. And that’s a 2026 training camp question the Bears need answered before they can make any real noise in the NFC.
Leave a Comment