Folarin Balogun is out for the U.S.-Belgium match. That suspension, for a red card that still feels soft even after replays, forces Mauricio Pochettino into a lineup decision he probably didn’t want to make this early in the knockout stage.
The obvious swap is Ricardo Pepi. Pochettino likes him. Trusts him. Has talked him up publicly. And Pepi does the things Poch values in a striker — hold-up play, pressing, occupying center backs even when he’s not scoring. But there’s a catch. Pepi just doesn’t score much for the national team. He’s a striker who rarely finds the net, and against a Belgium defense that isn’t exactly airtight, the U.S. needs goals.
The other true striker on the roster is Haji Wright. The 6-foot-4 forward just put up 17 goals for Coventry City and helped get them promoted to the Premier League. Size matters against Belgium’s back line, which features Brandon Mechelele, Nathan Ndoy, and Arthur Theate — all physical guys who can be bullied by a big body. But here’s the issue: Wright played one minute of stoppage time against Australia. Just one. Throwing him into a World Cup knockout game cold is a gamble.
Which brings us to a third option that doesn’t involve a traditional striker at all.
False 9s and the midfield adjustment
Pochettino could go without a true No. 9 and instead use two attackers who play like False 9s. That means Malik Tillman and someone else splitting the role — drifting into midfield, drawing defenders out of position, then attacking the space. Tillman already showed he can do it. He set up Balogun’s goal, hit a free kick himself, and fed Pulisic for a goal that got called back. He’s comfortable in that hybrid role.
That someone else should be Brenden Aaronson.
Aaronson played 77 minutes against Turkey and looked sharp. He distributed well, created chances for Pulisic and Pepi, and got into dangerous spots even if he didn’t score. He’s played that far forward for Leeds too. If he and Tillman both push higher and get aggressive around the box, their speed and quickness could cause real problems for Belgium’s center backs — the same way they did against Egypt, Iran, and Senegal.
What the U.S. needs to do to win
This matchup comes down to three things. First, the U.S. has to match Belgium’s physicality. Kevin De Bruyne, Jeremy Doku, Leandro Trossard — those guys can pick you apart if given time. Second, they have to handle Romelu Lukaku and Youri Tielemans when those two go direct. Third, they have to use speed up front to negate Belgium’s physical back line.
Aaronson doesn’t help with the first two. But he helps plenty with the third. And if the U.S. can do that, they have a real shot at reaching the quarterfinals for the first time since 2002.
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