Brazil, Germany, and the Netherlands Face Win-or-Go-Home Tests on Sunday

The World Cup knockout rounds are officially here. Canada kicked things off with a slow, tense win over South Africa on Saturday. Now it’s Brazil, Germany, and the Netherlands taking the stage with their tournament lives on the line. Three teams go home after Sunday. Three move on. Simple math but nothing else about it is simple.

Here’s what to watch for on June 29, 2026.

Brazil vs. Japan in Houston

Brazil didn’t look like Brazil at first. That opening draw with Morocco left a lot of people shrugging. But over the last two group games, the yellow shirts started moving the way they’re supposed to. The flair came back. The confidence followed.

Japan is a weird matchup for this Brazil team. Sweden and the Netherlands both struggled to break them down and got burned on counterattacks. But Brazil might be built differently for this. They’ve got speed at the back and creativity up front that could pick apart even the most organized defense. The odds say Brazil at -285. But Japan at +215 says this thing could get weird.

Germany vs. Paraguay in Boston

Nobody is calling this German squad a vintage team. They don’t have that killer No. 9. No wildly creative midfielder pulling the strings. But they’ve gotten results when it counts. They handled Curacao. They beat Ivory Coast late. They played Ecuador tight in a game that didn’t matter for them.

Paraguay is gritty but not exactly loaded with talent. Germany should win this one clean. The real test comes next round, possibly against France. So the question is whether Germany can stay locked in for 90 minutes against a team they’re supposed to beat. The odds say Germany at -400. That’s a lot of confidence for a team that hasn’t exactly wowed anyone.

Netherlands vs. Morocco in Guadalupe

Four years ago Morocco walked into a knockout match against Spain as massive underdogs. Everybody wrote them off. Then they played 120 scoreless minutes and won on penalties. Then they beat Portugal. Then they finally lost to France.

So the question now is whether that was a one-off from a golden generation or the start of something real. Morocco comes in as underdogs again at +125 against the Netherlands at -160. The Dutch are playing well and look like the better team on paper. But Morocco has proven they don’t care much about paper.

Three games. Three chances for something unexpected. That’s what the knockout stage is supposed to feel like.