The 2026 World Cup is officially underway, and after one full round of group matches, we have our first real look at which heavyweights came to play and which ones showed up still unpacking their bags. Some teams laid down early statements. Others left us with more questions than answers.
One game does not define a tournament, obviously. But it does give you a pretty strong hint about where a team’s head is at. And let’s be honest, some of these favorites looked like they were still stuck in customs.
Here is how the six biggest World Cup contenders stack up based solely on what they showed in their opening match.
6. Portugal – D 1-1 vs. DR Congo
Portugal came in with maybe the deepest squad they have ever sent to a major tournament. Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, Joao Neves, Nuno Mendes. All of them coming off world-class club seasons. And then they spent 90 minutes feeding a 41-year-old who has now gone ten straight major tournament appearances without scoring a goal.
DR Congo out-created Portugal in expected goals. They earned that point. And unlike Spain’s draw with Cape Verde, this one did not feel like a fluke. It felt like a team with a broken gameplan. Cristiano Ronaldo’s presence limited what this squad could do, and it showed.
If Portugal does not figure out a way to integrate its best creators without forcing the ball to an aging legend, they will be home early.
5. Spain – D 1-1 vs. Cape Verde
Spain was on the wrong end of one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history. Cape Verde is not some random minnow — they topped their African qualifying group ahead of Cameroon — but the reigning European champions should not be struggling to break down a defense anchored by a guy who spent his whole career in the Irish league and a 40-year-old keeper who was clubless last season.
The underlying numbers say Spain controlled the game. They created over 2.00 xG. But most of those chances were cumulative, not clear-cut. It was the same sterile domination that got them knocked out by Russia and Morocco in previous World Cups. Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams changed everything at Euro 2024. If they are not fully fit and sharp, Spain is back to passing themselves to death without a payoff.
4. Brazil – D 1-1 vs. Morocco
The first 30 minutes of Brazil’s match were genuinely alarming. Morocco ran through them like they were cones in a training drill. It could have been 3-0 before Brazil woke up.
But they did wake up. Vinicius Junior produced a moment of individual brilliance to level it. Carlo Ancelotti made adjustments at halftime. The second half was forgettable but competent. Brazil got a draw against excellent opposition and looked like they knew what they were doing by the final whistle.
Very Real Madrid of them. Very Ancelotti. Never count out star power that finds a way.
3. France – W 3-1 vs. Senegal
France was lucky not to be down at halftime. Kylian Mbappe played maybe the worst 45 minutes of his career. Then the second half happened, and everything clicked.
This might be the most stacked attacking squad ever sent to a World Cup. Mbappe and Michael Olise developed instant telepathy. Ousmane Dembele, the current Ballon d’Or holder, does not look as comfortable in this setup as he does for PSG, but it did not matter. France blew the African champions off the pitch after the break.
Complicated first half. Terrifying second half. If they put together a full 90, watch out.
2. England – W 4-2 vs. Croatia
England’s assistant coach Anthony Barry gave a surprisingly honest halftime interview, calling the first half “complicated and confusing.” Croatia had scored two well-worked goals, and questions about England’s center-back depth were already loud.
Then Jude Bellingham ran through the entire Croatian defense one minute into the second half to put England ahead for a third time. Harry Kane scored twice in the first half. Thomas Tuchel made proactive, bold substitutions that actually worked. For long stretches, England played the best football they have produced in a major tournament in over 20 years.
Croatia might finally be over the hill after back-to-back semifinal runs, but this was England’s first World Cup win over a top-15 ranked team since 2002. The question is whether they can sustain that intensity in humid conditions later in the tournament.
1. Argentina – W 3-0 vs. Algeria
Everyone wanted to ask whether Argentina could avoid the curse. France in 2002. Italy in 2010. Spain in 2014. Germany in 2018. All of them crashed out in the group stage after refusing to evolve from the squad that won it all four years earlier.
Lionel Scaloni brought back most of the same core from Qatar. Nicolas Otamendi is 38. Lionel Messi turns 39 next week and has been playing in MLS for three years. The same midfield three that started the World Cup final — Rodrigo De Paul, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez — looked gassed at the end of tough seasons.
Then Messi scored a hat trick. Emiliano Martinez did not have a single save to make. Argentina dismantled a genuinely solid Algeria team and looked like the same side that lifted the trophy in 2022. Angel Di Maria has not been replaced, Lautaro Martinez was poor, and there were questions about width. None of it mattered.
Argentina is the only team on this list that played a complete 90 minutes. They have plenty left to prove. But right now, they look like the team to beat.
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