The Miami Marlins have a decision to make on Sandy Alcantara, and the window for getting maximum value might already be closing. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the National League standings could ultimately determine whether the franchise finally pulls the trigger on a deal involving its former Cy Young winner.
Speaking on Foul Territory, Passan laid out a scenario that feels increasingly urgent for Miami. The Marlins sit at 37–38, fourth in the NL East, and the landscape around them is unforgiving. The Dodgers, Braves, and a Phillies team playing like a legitimate World Series contender all boast deep pitching staffs — meaning Miami can’t afford to wait forever if it wants to rebuild or retool.
“I think this with the Marlins is a perfect example of the standings dictating things,” Passan said. “The Marlins are a very patient organization, and I think they understand that in the landscape of the National League it’s a little bit different than the American League.”
The value equation
Alcantara, 30, has a $21 million club option for next season — team-friendly for an ace, but the performance numbers this year tell a more complicated story. Through 16 starts, he’s posted a 4.18 ERA with 77 strikeouts and a 7–4 record. Those aren’t bad numbers, but they’re not the dominant, sub-3.00 ERA version that won the NL Cy Young in 2022.
“After this year, he has a $21 million option for next season, but he’s beginning to lose some of that trade value,” Passan explained. “Previously, it was down because of performance; now it’s just a question of: How much are we actually going to be getting out of this guy with only a year and a half control?”
That’s the crux. With only 1.5 years of team control remaining — including this season — the Marlins face a narrowing window to maximize a return. Trade partners wary of giving up top prospects for a pitcher whose numbers have slipped may drive down Miami’s asking price.
Will this be the year?
The team has not confirmed any active trade talks, but speculation has only intensified as the July deadline approaches. For the Marlins, the calculus is familiar: hold onto a star and hope the roster around him improves, or deal him now while the market still values his pedigree.
Passan suggested that trading Alcantara this season makes more sense than holding on. With the NL East stacked and Miami’s farm system needing replenishment, the opportunity to turn one star into multiple pieces could accelerate a rebuild that has stalled in mediocrity.
For now, the baseball world watches. The Marlins are patient — but patience has a price, and every start Alcantara makes without a trade changes the math.
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