Craig Counsell’s Justin Steele update forces the Cubs into a tougher trade decision

The Chicago Cubs were hoping Justin Steele would come back and pitch like their ace again down the stretch. That is not happening now. At least not the way they wanted.

Counsell told Bob Nightengale of MLB.com that Steele, who hasn’t thrown a pitch since April 7, will start throwing off a mound in the first week of August. But here’s the problem. By that point, the Cubs will be deep into a playoff race, and Counsell said it’s too late for Steele to ramp up as a starter. Instead, he’d be used out of the bullpen in September.

That changes things for Chicago’s front office. The Cubs are 53-42 at the All-Star break, sitting second in the NL Central and holding the top wild-card spot in the National League. They are in a position to make noise. But their starting rotation looks shaky beyond Shota Imanaga.

Imanaga has been the team’s most reliable arm, but even his numbers are just okay. He’s 5-8 with a 4.17 ERA. He’s also the only Cubs starter who has made more than ten starts and still has a positive WAR. Colin Rea is the next closest guy, and he’s sitting at 4-5 with a 4.75 ERA and only two quality starts all year. The team ranks 21st in the majors in team ERA and is tied for 23rd in quality starts. That is not playoff-caliber pitching.

So the front office has a decision to make before the trade deadline. Do they go out and get a real starter? A guy who can slot in behind Imanaga and give them a chance in a short series? The trade market is always messy at the deadline, but the Cubs have the prospect capital and the motivation. Steele coming back as a reliever instead of a starter just makes the need more obvious.

Steele needed UCL surgery after only four starts in 2025. His recovery looked promising until a flexor strain in his left forearm shut him down again. He’s back to rehabbing now, but the timeline just doesn’t work for him to build up as a starter before the season ends. The bullpen role makes sense from a medical standpoint. From a competitive standpoint, it puts more pressure on everyone else.

The Cubs were leading the Reds 2-0 in the first inning of their final game before the break. They are in control right now. But without another reliable starter, holding that wild-card spot gets a whole lot harder.