The first 32-team knockout round is done. Now we get the real thing. Sixteen teams left, one trophy, and a whole lot of folks in Atlanta already planning their July 15 travel. But before we get there, let’s sort out where everyone stands after the group stage shook out the way it did.
1. France
They keep winning. And they keep looking like they’re barely sweating. Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise — that front three is playing at a level that feels unfair right now. You watch them and it’s hard to picture anyone stopping them over 90 minutes. Paraguay is next, which should be a formality. After that, either Canada or Morocco. Neither of those teams has the kind of firepower to hang with Les Bleus for a full match.
The one thing worth watching: France hasn’t faced a truly elite opponent yet. When they do, things could tighten up. But honestly, that feels like grasping at straws.
2. Brazil
Carlo Ancelotti is figuring this team out in real time. The opening draw with Morocco looks way less concerning now given how Morocco has played. And that comeback win over Japan? That was the moment something clicked. The turning point was Ancelotti subbing in 19-year-old Endrick for Lucas Paqueta. Suddenly the attack became what it was supposed to be — all speed, no brakes.
Norway is up next. If Endrick starts, watch out.
3. Argentina
Still dangerous. Still heavily reliant on Lionel Messi, who is 39 and can’t carry a squad for seven matches the way he used to. But their path to the semis is the easiest of anyone in the field. If things break right and we get Argentina vs. Brazil in Atlanta on July 15, that could be one of the best World Cup matches ever played. And if Argentina wins that one, nobody should act shocked.
4. Spain
Something feels off. Spain is getting by on habit and weak competition. The 3-0 win over Austria helped if Mikel Oyarzabal can settle into the No. 9 role they’ve been missing. But the injury list is long, the bench is thin, and the lineup still doesn’t quite fit together. France is probably waiting for them in the later rounds, and that feels like a bridge too far.
5. USA
Why not them? Genuinely. Mauricio Pochettino has this team playing with a belief American fans haven’t seen before. Christian Pulisic is getting healthier. Folarin Balogun will be back soon. The midfield has been one of the best in the tournament. Belgium is next, and even without Balogun for that one, the USMNT has a real shot to finally get past the Round of 16.
The defense and the goalkeeping are still question marks. But Pochettino has been scheming around those weaknesses all tournament. If he can do it one more time, Spain or Portugal could be waiting in the quarters. And neither of those teams looks unbeatable right now.
6. Morocco
Hard team to root for. What they did at AFCON was ugly in a competitive sense. Star player Achraf Hakimi is dealing with a rape case in France. But these rankings are about what happens between the lines, and between the lines Morocco is legit. Tough defensively, dangerous on the break, skilled in attack. Their run to the semis in Qatar wasn’t a fluke. This generation is here to stay — as long as they can keep the off-field stuff from blowing everything up.
7. England
Harry Kane is the reason England keeps winning. But don’t sleep on what Thomas Tuchel did against DR Congo, moving Declan Rice to right back. That change flipped the match and might have saved England’s tournament. The fans singing “Wonderwall” is a nice bonus. Kane scoring is the real engine. If Tuchel keeps making moves like that, the Three Lions could make a serious run.
8. Norway
Erling Haaland played his worst match of the tournament against Ivory Coast. Norway still won. He still scored the game-winner. So is that a good sign or a bad one? Maybe both. Haaland will almost certainly be better against Brazil. But if Martin Odegaard or someone else doesn’t step up and have a big game, Norway’s tournament ends right there.
9. Portugal
Still the deepest roster in the field, top to bottom. Winning late against Croatia is nothing to be embarrassed about — Croatia is always tough. But something about this Portugal team never feels quite right. Roberto Martinez has all this talent and can’t seem to unlock it consistently. They could absolutely beat Spain and start a run. But with Martinez making the tactical decisions, it feels more likely they’ll grind to a halt.
10. Colombia
This spot came down to Colombia, Belgium, and Mexico. Colombia gets the nod because they keep finding a way. Luis Diaz is the kind of forward who can drag a team through a bad night. Switzerland should be beatable in the Round of 16. After that, Argentina probably waits. But don’t count Colombia out completely. They’re organized, physical, and Diaz creates chaos. That combination could give Messi and company real problems.
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