France Looks Like a Lock. Morocco and Canada Have Other Plans.

The Round of 32 had its moments. Argentina nearly got sent home by Cape Verde. A couple of games went to penalties. But mostly, the favorites held serve. Now we’re down to 16 teams, and the knockout rounds get real. No more margin for error. No more warm-up games. Every match is a final from here.

Saturday’s slate in the 2026 World Cup features two matchups that on paper look lopsided. But soccer doesn’t care about paper. Here’s what to watch for on July 4.

Canada vs. Morocco — Houston, 1 p.m. ET (FOX, Telemundo)

Odds to advance: Canada +225, Morocco -285

Paraguay vs. France — Philadelphia, 5 p.m. ET (FOX, Telemundo)

Odds to advance: Paraguay +800, France -1600

The France Problem

Before the tournament started, you could make a case for five or six teams winning it all. Spain looked sharp. Argentina had that aura. England always has talent. Brazil is Brazil. But three weeks in, France is the team that keeps stepping forward while everyone else takes a half-step back.

Kylian Mbappé is playing like he’s bored. The midfield is relentless. The defense hasn’t really been tested yet. Gambling markets have France as heavy favorites for a reason. And their path just got a little easier with Argentina nearly getting bounced — though the defending champs survived Cape Verde and still lurk on the other side of the bracket. A rematch of the 2022 final is still possible. But if France keeps playing like this, it might not matter who they face.

Can Morocco Repeat the Magic?

Four years ago, Morocco was the story of the World Cup. The first African semifinalist. The team that knocked out Spain and Portugal. The defense that refused to break. Now they’re back, and they’ve already beaten the Netherlands in the Round of 32. Some of that win was about the Dutch playing scared. Some of it was Morocco being good.

Achraf Hakimi leads a team that’s comfortable on the big stage. And here’s the thing: a lot of these guys grew up in Europe. Several were born in France. They won’t be intimidated by a potential quarterfinal matchup with Les Bleus. They know those players. They’ve shared locker rooms with them. That familiarity cuts both ways.

First, though, Canada. And Canada is not a pushover.

Alphonso Davies and Canada’s Hope

Canada made the knockout stage for the first time ever without its best player really playing. Alphonso Davies missed most of the group stage with a hamstring issue. He got 15 minutes against the Netherlands in the Round of 32. Reports now suggest he’ll play a “bigger role” against Morocco. Whether that means starting or just more minutes off the bench, nobody has confirmed.

But if Canada has any shot at making the quarterfinals — another first — it’s because Davies is on the field. He’s the engine. The guy who turns defense into attack in two touches. Jesse Marsch has done a hell of a job getting this far without his star. Now he might actually have him. Morocco is the favorite, but Davies changes the math.

These are the moments the World Cup exists for. A team on the rise. A star fighting through injury. A powerhouse looking inevitable. Saturday will tell us which story keeps going.