0.02 xG: France’s Attack Was Worse Than Cape Verde’s in the First Half

It’s not often that a team featuring Kylian Mbappé makes the stats guys blush. But here we are.

France, widely considered a co-favorite for the World Cup, stumbled through the first half of their opening match against Senegal with an expected goals (xG) value of just 0.02. That’s right point-zero-two. To put that in perspective, Cape Verde — the tiny island nation nobody expects to get out of the group stage — posted 0.04 xG against Spain in their own first half.

Let that sink in. The reigning runner-ups, loaded with attacking talent from Mbappé to Michael Olise to Bradley Barcola, were statistically less dangerous than a team that entered the tournament with odds of 500-to-1. The stat, flagged by the analytics account ‘The xG Philosophy,’ made the rounds quickly. Fans online noted that France looked disjointed, passing sideways, and rarely threatening Senegal’s box. Two early scares at the other end — Senegal hit the woodwork and forced a sharp save — only made the half more forgettable for Les Bleus supporters.

But the question is fair: where was a higher xG supposed to come from? France’s attack was static. Mbappé drifted wide but found no service. Olise, for all his Bundesliga creativity, was bottled up by Senegal’s compact 4-4-2. The half’s best chance? A speculative shot from range that sailed into the stands. Didier Deschamps’ side simply had no ideas in the final third.

The Second Half Turnaround

Whatever was said in the locker room worked immediately. France came out with real urgency, and it took less than eight minutes for Mbappé to break the deadlock. A superb through ball from Olise — Bayern’s playmaker, finally given space — split Senegal’s defense, and the Real Madrid forward slotted home with his usual ice-cold finish.

That goal shifted everything. Senegal pushed forward, gaps appeared, and around the 70th minute, Barcola doubled the lead with a composed finish after a sweeping counter-attack. France won 2-0, and the scoreline looks comfortable. But the first-half stinker remains a talking point — especially when compared to Cape Verde’s surprisingly respectable opening 45 minutes against Spain.

Deschamps won’t care about the xG number. He knows tournament football is about results, not analytics. But if France wants to back up that co-favorite tag, they’ll need to start building attacks before the second half. And they’ll need to do it against stiffer competition than Cape Verde faced.