Twins Have One Clear Path to Trading Byron Buxton. It Would Cost Them Everything.

Byron Buxton isn’t going anywhere. Probably. But there’s a scenario where he does, and it would mean the Minnesota Twins are basically starting over from scratch.

The Twins sit at 35-40, four and a half games back in the AL Central. That’s not great, but it’s not hopeless either. The thing is, the front office seems more focused on what comes next than what’s happening right now. That’s why Buxton’s name keeps popping up in trade rumors. Again.

The No-Trade Clause Problem

There’s one giant piece of paper standing between the Twins and a Buxton deal: his full no-trade clause. He controls where he goes, if he goes anywhere at all. MLB.com’s Matthew Leach laid out the math pretty clearly. The Twins probably keep him. But he didn’t rule it out completely.

“Now: Is there a scenario where he goes? Yes. But it starts with a bigger teardown, which right now doesn’t appear to be the direction they’re likely to go,” Leach said. “But if, say, the Twins part with Ryan Jeffers and Joe Ryan, then Buxton might well decide he doesn’t want to be the last one standing. But it’s hard to envision a sequence of events where he gets moved other than as part of a much bigger selloff.”

Translation: if the Twins keep their other veterans, Buxton stays. If they start shipping out guys like catcher Ryan Jeffers and pitcher Joe Ryan, that’s when Buxton might look around and decide he’d rather go somewhere he can win.

What a Buxton Trade Would Actually Look Like

Minnesota hasn’t made the playoffs in two years. They already held a pretty big fire sale at last year’s deadline. That felt like the beginning of a full rebuild. But then they didn’t fully commit to it. They kept enough pieces around to stay competitive-ish, without being good enough to actually contend.

If that changes — if the front office decides to go all the way into rebuild mode — Buxton becomes a realistic trade candidate. He’d have to waive that no-trade clause, but if the guys he trusted are gone, why wouldn’t he?

Buxton has been the engine of this offense. In 63 games this season, he’s hitting .275 with 23 homers, 36 RBIs and seven stolen bases. He’s the kind of player a contender would love to add for a playoff push. But the Twins can’t just dangle him and see what offers come in. He has to want out.

The Likely Outcome

Right now, he doesn’t want out. He’s the leader of this team, the guy everything runs through. The Twins haven’t shown any sign of moving Jeffers or Ryan. Until that changes, a Buxton trade is basically a fantasy. Leach said it himself — you’d need a much bigger selloff for this to happen. That selloff hasn’t arrived.

So barring a complete reversal of the franchise’s direction, Buxton probably stays put through the deadline. But keep an eye on what happens with the other veterans around him. If one of them goes, the dominoes might start falling.