The San Diego Padres are stuck in second place in the NL West, nine games behind the Dodgers. That gap probably won’t close before October. But in a short playoff series, anything can happen. The question is whether the Padres have the pitching to make a real run.
They don’t. Not right now. And that’s why Zac Gallen’s name keeps floating around trade rumors.
Gallen used to be the kind of pitcher who could flip a postseason. He started an All-Star Game three years ago. He struck out 220 guys in 210 innings. And back in 2023, when the Diamondbacks went to the World Series, he won two games in that run.
That guy is hard to find. The problem is he might not exist anymore.
The numbers are ugly
Last season Gallen went 13-15 with a 4.83 ERA. This year he’s been worse. Through 14 starts, he’s 3-6 with a 6.10 ERA. That ranks dead last among all qualified starters in baseball, according to ESPN. The next worst guy, Jeffrey Springs, is at 5.55. That’s not close.
His WHIP is 1.63. Again, worst in baseball. Kyle Bradish is second worst at 1.45. In 79 innings, Gallen has only 52 strikeouts. The fastball velocity is down. The command is spotty. He’s turning 31 in August, which is around the age when pitchers sometimes fall off a cliff.
So why are teams still interested? Desperation, mostly. There aren’t many impact starters available at the deadline, and Gallen’s track record is real enough that some front office might talk themselves into a change-of-scenery bounceback. Jim Bowden of The Athletic wrote that Gallen has had an up-and-down year but a new team could help turn his career around.
Maybe. But the Padres shouldn’t pay top dollar to find out.
What a smart offer looks like
San Diego needs to negotiate like Gallen is a No. 4 starter, because that’s what he’s been. If they give up a prospect, it shouldn’t be a top-tier guy. It should be somebody from the back of their top 30 list.
Carson Montgomery fits that description. He’s 23, a right-hander coming back from Tommy John surgery. MLB.com says he sits 92-95 mph with both a four-seamer and a sinker. He had control issues at Florida State but has tightened things up since returning from surgery. There’s enough raw talent that Arizona might bite.
But Montgomery alone won’t get a deal done. The Diamondbacks are sitting at .500 with a roster that’s not good enough to make noise. They need to restock. So the Padres might add Miguel Mendez, a 6-foot-2 right-hander in Double-A who has a 4.93 ERA over 11 starts with 38 strikeouts in 34.2 innings. Padres GM A.J. Preller said last year that Mendez has three above-average pitches — fastball, slider, changeup — and could eventually put himself in position for Petco Park.
That’s the offer. Montgomery and Mendez. Low-to-mid-level prospects with some upside but no sure things.
If the Diamondbacks want more, the Padres should walk. Gallen’s numbers don’t justify a bigger price. And if he rediscovers his old form somewhere else, well, that’s a risk San Diego can live with. They’ve got bigger problems than overpaying for a guy who might not be the same pitcher anymore.
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