World Cup 2026 is already through its first 14 days and Thursday’s slate might actually be the most chaotic of the entire group stage. We already know Mexico, South Africa, Switzerland, Canada, Brazil and Morocco have punched their tickets. Scotland, South Korea and Bosnia and Herzegovina are still lurking. And the USMNT and Germany? They’re already through. But here’s the thing: Thursday is about who joins them.
What’s at stake in Group D after the USMNT clinched
The Americans could walk into this game against Turkiye with nothing to lose in the standings. First place is locked. They’ll likely face Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32. But there’s a real question about whether head coach Gregg Berhalter rests everybody or plays the starters. A 12-day break before the next game sounds nice in theory. But momentum is real. And winning three straight group games for the first time in U.S. World Cup history would matter for a program still trying to prove it belongs at this level.
Below them, Australia and Paraguay are both sitting pretty after beating Turkiye. A draw between them Thursday night puts the Socceroos through as second-place. Paraguay would almost certainly go through as one of the best third-place finishers. So that game has plenty of tension even if the group winner is already decided.
Group E is wide open and it’s not just about Germany
Germany is through. That much is obvious. But the other spot is basically a three-way fistfight between Ivory Coast, Ecuador and Curacao. Ivory Coast has three points. Ecuador and Curacao each have one. For Ecuador to survive, they need a win against Germany. Nothing less works. For Ivory Coast, a draw against Curacao gets the job done.
Here’s where it gets weird. If Curacao — the smallest nation in the tournament with about 156,000 people — somehow beats Ivory Coast, they’d be on four points. Even if Ecuador wins, four points likely gets them through. That would mean Curacao makes the knockout stage. That’s not a drill. That’s real.
Group F might come down to yellow cards or FIFA rankings
The most straightforward path: the Netherlands beats Tunisia by a comfortable margin, Japan and Sweden draw, and all three go through in that order. But if Japan and the Netherlands both win, both finish on seven points. They drew each other. They both have a +4 goal differential right now. The Dutch have scored one more goal than Japan so far. That means the group winner might be decided by something as small as which team collected fewer yellow cards. Or even the FIFA world rankings, which currently have the Netherlands at No. 8 and Japan at No. 16. That’s real tight.
Tunisia, by the way, is massive underdogs at +2500 to beat the Dutch. So don’t expect chaos there. But Japan versus Sweden? That draw line at +245 is tempting.
Thursday’s full match schedule for World Cup 2026 Day 15
Curacao vs. Ivory Coast at 4 p.m. ET in Philadelphia (FS1, Telemundo). Ecuador vs. Germany at 4 p.m. ET in New Jersey (FOX, Telemundo). Japan vs. Sweden at 7 p.m. ET in Dallas (FOX, Telemundo). Tunisia vs. Netherlands at 7 p.m. ET in Kansas City (FS1, Telemundo). Paraguay vs. Australia at 10 p.m. ET in San Francisco (FS1, Telemundo). Turkiye vs. USA at 10 p.m. ET in Los Angeles (FOX, Telemundo).
Some of these games are going to feel like dead rubber until they aren’t. That’s the beauty of the 48-team format. More teams means more live matches on the final day. Don’t be surprised if we see Curacao do something stupid and wonderful.
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