The Home Run Derby has a new look this year, and it’s not just the format that’s different. For the first time in years, the event feels genuinely unpredictable. That’s what happens when you drop eight sluggers into Citizens Bank Park, give them a limited number of swings instead of a ticking clock, and let two hometown stars try to steal the show from each other.
MLB ditched the timed round format that’s been around since 2015. Now it’s simple: Round one gives each hitter 20 swings. Rounds two and three drop to 15. If you go deep on your last swing, you keep going until you don’t. That puts a premium on discipline and contact quality, not just swinging as fast as humanly possible. That should help some guys and hurt others.
The eight-man field is stacked. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are the headliners, representing the host Phillies in front of a crowd that will be roaring for every swing. Joining them: Munetaka Murakami (White Sox), Junior Caminero (Rays), Jordan Walker (Cardinals), Ben Rice (Yankees), Wilson Contreras (Red Sox), and Jac Caglianone (Royals).
The hometown split
Philadelphia fans are hyped. You get two stars in the derby during All-Star week at your own ballpark. But here’s the thing — both of them probably can’t advance past round one. One will move on, and one will go home early. The smarter bet is Schwarber.
He’s leading MLB with 32 homers this season. He’s done this before, leading the NL twice. He also finished second to Harper in the 2018 derby. But the new format favors Schwarber’s approach. He doesn’t chase. He doesn’t expand the zone. In a derby where you only get 20 swings in the first round, wasting a single one on a pitch you can’t drive is a problem. Schwarber won’t do that. Harper is talented, he’s a former winner, but his swing can get long. Against this field, that might cost him.
Expect Schwarber to survive. Harper goes down with 14 homers in round one, which would be enough most years but not this one.
Murakami’s moment
The White Sox rookie is the international draw here. Japan is watching. He started the season on fire before a hamstring injury cost him all of June. He’s back now and healthy, and his high-arcing swing is built for this event. He doesn’t need to hit line drives. He needs to launch balls into the second deck. That’s his game.
Murakami should be dangerous in the second round. He and Schwarber could meet in the final if things break right.
The guys who probably won’t make it
Rice has 29 homers this season, third in MLB. But nobody would call him the Yankees’ top power threat. Contreras brings entertainment value — the guy has been surrounded by drama for weeks — but his raw power doesn’t match the rest of the field. Caglianone has the fewest homers among participants with 15. None of them feels like a real threat to win.
The two young guys who could surprise are Caminero and Walker. Caminero finished second in this event last year. He’s got a violent, aggressive swing and that kind of youthful energy that plays well in a derby setting. Walker has finally broken out in St. Louis after three rough seasons. He’s got 22 homers and 74 RBIs this year. He might be the quietest threat in the field.
How the rounds could play out
Predicting exact homer totals with the new format is guesswork, but let’s try. Round one: Schwarber goes deep 19 times. Caminero follows with 18. Walker and Murakami each hit 15. Harper gets eliminated with 14. Rice and Caglianone both hit 13. Contreras struggles and finishes with 11.
Second round: Schwarber and Murakami each hit 12 to advance. Championship round: Schwarber hits 14 in front of a raucous Philly crowd to finally shed the tag of being one of the best home run hitters ever without a derby trophy. He has never won this thing. That changes in 2026.
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