A few weeks ago, the Boston Red Sox looked like they were ready to sell off anything that wasn’t nailed down. Trade rumors were everywhere. Aroldis Chapman’s name was at the top of the list. But baseball doesn’t care about narratives, and Boston just went 14-2 to close the first half. Now the whole conversation has flipped.
According to FanGraphs, the Red Sox enter the second half with a 40.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. That’s not some dominant number, but it’s enough to make the front office think twice about moving their closer. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi put it plainly on social media: an Aroldis Chapman trade is increasingly unlikely to happen at all.
The math is simple but the schedule gets harder
Boston sits at 46-48, ten games back in the NL East. That gap looks ugly until you glance at the Wild Card standings. They are half a game out of a spot. Half a game. When you’re that close, you don’t exactly gift wrap your best reliever to a contender.
Chapman has been as good as anyone could ask for through his first 30 appearances in 2026. The lefty has a 2.20 ERA, a 36-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 19 saves. That’s tied for seventh-most in the league. If the Red Sox are serious about making a run, having him at the back end of the bullpen gives them a real weapon.
But Boston has to be honest with itself
Chapman is set to hit free agency after the 2027 season. That means he could be a rental-plus, but he won’t be cheap. Teams have called. The Red Sox have listened. But that recent surge has injected some real belief into the clubhouse. If those playoff odds keep ticking upward as the trade deadline approaches, the phone calls coming in for Chapman might not get returned at all.
The next few weeks will tell the story. Boston has proven they can get hot. The question is whether they can stay that way long enough to make holding onto Chapman the smart play instead of the sentimental one.
Leave a Comment