The Las Vegas Raiders hit rock bottom in 2025. Last place in the NFL. The kind of season that gets people fired and leaves fans checking draft boards in October. But the league doesn’t do permanent. Teams flip standing every year. Sometimes it only takes a few things breaking right.
If the Raiders want to go from the basement to a surprise playoff run in 2026, these four things have to happen.
The defense has to stop being a liability
This franchise hasn’t had a top-eight defense since 2002. Think about that. That’s over two decades of getting pushed around on that side of the ball. The front office spent heavily this offseason trying to change that. It needs to work.
The linebacker room got completely overhauled. Kwity Paye, Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean are all new. Nickel back Taron Johnson joined the secondary. Those additions should take some heat off Maxx Crosby, who’s still the best pass rusher on the roster by a mile. And after the Ravens backed out of a deal for him late last year, Crosby has extra motivation to make quarterbacks in the AFC West miserable.
If the defense jumps into the top half of the league, the Raiders have a fighting chance.
Ashton Jeanty has to be the player they drafted
Taking a running back sixth overall is a gamble. One year in, it looks like a loss. Jeanty averaged just 4.1 yards per touch as a rookie, which ranked 35th among NFL running backs according to PFF. That’s not what you expect from a top-10 pick.
The Raiders are likely starting either Kirk Cousins, who’s 36 and can’t move, or rookie Fernando Mendoza. That means the run game and short passes to the backfield are going to carry the offense. Jeanty has to be the focal point. Fourth-round pick Mike Washington Jr. should help keep him fresh. But if Jeanty doesn’t find the form he showed at Boise State, this offense is going to struggle to score enough to win.
Someone has to step up at wide receiver
The Raiders have Brock Bowers at tight end, which is a great start. They have Jeanty out of the backfield. But they don’t have a clear No. 1 wide receiver. And playoff teams almost always have one.
The depth chart right now is thin. But there are some interesting pieces. Jack Becht is a sharp route runner with reliable hands. Tre Tucker and Dont’e Thornton Jr. bring straight-line speed. Darake Young has the size and strength to be a poor man’s DK Metcalf. If one of those guys becomes a dependable target, the quarterback’s job gets a lot easier. If none of them do, defenses will just key in on Bowers and make life miserable.
It all comes back to the quarterback
Let’s be real. You can fix the defense, get Jeanty rolling and find a receiver. None of it matters without competent quarterback play. And right now, the Raiders don’t know what they have.
Cousins is the nominal starter. There’s a scenario where the other pieces click and his veteran poise gets this team to the postseason. But that’s the optimistic version. The more likely path involves Mendoza beating him out in camp or taking over after an injury or bad play. Mendoza just won a national championship. He’s accurate, he’s smart and he’s mobile enough to extend plays. That’s a starting point.
Even if one or two of the other things don’t fully come together, a legitimate franchise quarterback can drag a flawed team to the playoffs. If Mendoza is that guy, the Raiders aren’t just a 2026 surprise. They might finally be back on the right track for real.
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