Kylian Mbappe is already one of the best goal-scorers the World Cup has ever seen. And he’s only 27 years old. After the heartbreak of losing the 2022 final to Argentina, where Lionel Messi basically wrote his own ending, Mbappe is back in Qatar with a different kind of mission. He’s chasing the all-time scoring record. And he’s close.
Right now, Mbappe is tied with German legend Miroslav Klose at 16 career World Cup goals. Only Messi, who somehow has 19 despite being 39 years old and playing in what feels like his tenth lifetime, sits ahead. But for Mbappe, the trophy matters more than the individual stat. France wants a third World Cup title. He wants his second. Still, the goals are the thing that will seal his legacy either way.
The Golden Boot race has been wild. Messi leads with six goals in three games. Yes, six. In three games. He’s done it after a full season with Inter Miami, which is ridiculous if you think about it. Behind him, four players are tied at four goals: Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, Vinicius Jr., and Erling Haaland. So it’s not exactly a runaway.
France’s path to the final is tough but manageable. They play Sweden in the Round of 32, then Paraguay (who knocked out Germany on penalties). After that, it’s either Canada or Morocco, who beat the Netherlands. Then a potential semifinal against Spain, Portugal, or Brazil. That’s a serious bracket. But France has no reason to be scared. Their attack is stacked. Beyond Mbappe, they’ve got Dembele, Michael Olise, Desire Doue, Bradley Barcola, Rayan Cherki, and Marcus Thuram coming off the bench. That’s depth that most teams can only dream about.
Dembele showed what he can do against Norway, scoring multiple times. But the attack still runs through Mbappe. Even when Dembele is the one finishing, Mbappe is the one making the defense panic. The ball finds its way to him. He’s the guy they count on when things get tight. And after going scoreless against Norway, you know he wants to make up for it.
So here’s where it gets interesting. If France reaches the final, Mbappe plays five more games. Some of those will be grinders. Low-scoring, physical, defensive. But we’re predicting he scores four more goals in this tournament. That would give him 20 career World Cup goals. One more than Messi currently has. Even if France doesn’t make the final, we think he gets there. Four more goals. That’s the bet.
Of course, Messi isn’t going to just stop scoring. He’s Messi. He’s probably good for a couple more before Argentina’s run ends. So while Mbappe might end up as the second-highest scorer all-time after this tournament, he’ll still be breathing down the record. And at 27, he’s got at least one more World Cup after this. Probably two.
Final overall goal prediction: 20
Tournament goal prediction: 8
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