The Anaheim Ducks walked into NHL free agency with a plan. They were quiet on purpose. They said so publicly. The whole strategy was built around one thing: keeping Leo Carlsson. And now that plan is in shambles.
On Friday, the Philadelphia Flyers signed Carlsson to a five-year offer sheet worth a reported $15 million per season. That number would make the 21-year-old the highest-paid player in the NHL. Anaheim general manager Pat Verbeek has until the end of this week to decide whether to match it. If he doesn’t, the Flyers send four first-round picks to Anaheim as compensation.
But here’s the thing the Ducks didn’t see coming: the offer sheet itself changes everything, regardless of what Verbeek does.
“He Didn’t See This Coming”
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman broke down the situation on the 32 Thoughts podcast and didn’t sugarcoat it. “Pat Verbeek, I think he’s got a really good eye for talent. I think he’s got a really good eye for how to put a team together. But he didn’t see this coming. And now, it has changed the trajectory of the Ducks. He has lost control, unfortunately for him, of the structure of his organization. Who knows where this goes, but the Ducks might never be the same.”
That’s strong language. And it makes sense when you look at how this whole thing played out.
The Ducks had publicly guaranteed they’d match any offer sheet for Carlsson. That’s why they stayed out of the free agent market, or so they said. But according to reports, Anaheim was only willing to go as high as $12 million per year. Carlsson wanted $15 million. The Flyers came in and offered exactly that, forcing Verbeek into a corner.
Four Picks or a Massive Contract
Here’s the math. If Verbeek matches, he’s paying his 21-year-old center more than anyone else in the league makes. That changes the entire salary structure of the franchise. Suddenly every other young player on the roster has a new number in their head. And the Ducks still aren’t close to contending.
If Verbeek lets him walk, he gets four first-rounders. That sounds great in theory. But those picks are from a Flyers team that might be pretty good soon. The value isn’t guaranteed. And more importantly, the Ducks lose a player they built their entire offseason around retaining.
Neither option looks great. That’s why Friedman used the word “control.” Verbeek had a plan. The Flyers blew it up. Now Anaheim is reacting instead of acting.
The clock is ticking. Verbeek has until the end of the week to make his call. However this shakes out, the Ducks have already lost the leverage they thought they had. And in a league where every move matters, that might be the hardest blow to recover from.
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