Ken Rosenthal Predicts Tarik Skubal Will Be Traded. Here’s Why He’s Not Budging.

Ken Rosenthal has seen this script before. And he’s not changing his mind.

The FOX Sports and The Athletic insider said this week he still believes the Detroit Tigers will trade Tarik Skubal before the deadline, despite recent speculation the team might hold onto the two-time reigning Cy Young winner.

Rosenthal’s take is blunt: I still believe he gets traded.

He laid out his reasoning, and it’s not complicated.

Scott Boras’ clients of which Tarik Skubal is one, generally do not sign extensions, and he’s coming off back-to-back Cy Young awards, Rosenthal said.

That’s the whole calculus in a nutshell. Boras historically pushes his star pitchers to free agency. The Tigers are 32-44 and going nowhere. Skubal is baseball’s most valuable trade chip right now. Almost every contender wants him. The Padres, Phillies and Yankees have been linked. A bidding war between big-market teams could bring back a haul Detroit can’t ignore.

But there’s a wrench in the timeline. Skubal had elbow surgery earlier this season and only recently returned to the mound. He made his second start back Friday against the White Sox and threw five-plus innings with eight strikeouts. His ERA sits at 3.02.

That start also included a shouting match with a White Sox player. Skubal didn’t exactly downplay it afterward.

I’m a competitive guy. I kind of wear my emotions out there and that’s part of how I play the game, he told MLB.com. I think it’s just baseball, going back and forth. It is what it is. It happened. It’s over with.

So the stuff is there. The fire is there. The question is whether a team will pay the asking price for a pitcher coming off surgery, even if the surgery was on his non-throwing elbow. Scouts will want to see a few more starts. The Tigers front office might want to see if the trade market heats up closer to July.

Detroit won back-to-back games against Chicago over the weekend. That doesn’t change their position in the standings. It doesn’t change Skubal’s contract timeline. And it doesn’t change the reality that Boras clients almost never sign extensions before hitting the open market.

Rosenthal is betting on that pattern holding.