The Philadelphia Flyers didn’t just make a splash on Friday. They threw a grenade into the NHL’s salary structure by signing Anaheim Ducks restricted free agent Leo Carlsson to a five-year, $18 million AAV offer sheet. That number, the highest cap hit in the league right now, forces the Ducks into a seven-day clock to either match or take four first-round picks as compensation.
But here’s what the Ducks were actually hoping to pay their 21-year-old Swedish center before Philadelphia came in and blew things up. According to NHL insider Kevin Weekes, Anaheim’s front office had targeted a much more modest range for Carlsson and fellow young forward Cutter Gauthier: somewhere between $10 million and $12 million per year. That’s a significant gap from the $18 million the Flyers just dangled in front of him.
Weekes reported that the Ducks were also keeping an eye on Beckett Sennecke as the next in line for a big deal. Then he added something that caught the attention of fans around the league. The Flyers’ move, he said, “also impacts Bedard and Celebrini.” That’s Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini, two of the most marketable young stars in hockey. If a team is willing to offer sheet a 21-year-old coming off a 67-point season at $18 million AAV, what does that do to the next round of contract negotiations for guys like Bedard?
The offer sheet that changes the math
Carlsson just finished his third NHL season and was a big reason the Ducks made their first playoff appearance since 2018. He played 70 games and put up a career-high 67 points, 29 goals and 38 assists. That was good for second on the team behind only Gauthier, who had 69. Solid numbers for a young center, but $18 million solid? That’s the kind of money reserved for generational talents playing their prime years, not a guy who’s shown promise but hasn’t cracked a point-per-game yet.
The Flyers obviously disagree or they wouldn’t have put that offer sheet together. They’re betting that Carlsson’s trajectory is steep and that $18 million will look reasonable by Year 3 of the deal. Maybe they’re right. Maybe they’re just trying to force Anaheim into a brutal decision.
Match or walk?
Anaheim’s options are straightforward but not easy. Match the offer sheet and you’ve got Carlsson locked up for five years at a salary that immediately resets the market for young RFA forwards. That means less cap flexibility for building around him, Gauthier and whoever comes next. Let him walk and you get four future first-round picks from Philadelphia, which is a haul but also means you just lost your second-leading scorer and a core piece of your rebuild. Decisions, decisions.
The Ducks have a week to figure it out. In the meantime, agents for Bedard and Celebrini are probably taking notes.
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