Five Possible World Cup Opponents Await England Depending on Group L Finish

England’s path to the World Cup final could get a lot clearer or a whole lot messier depending on what happens against Panama tonight. The Three Lions sit in a strong position atop Group L after a 4-2 win over Croatia and a scoreless draw with Ghana, but the real drama is who they’d face in the round of 32.

Thomas Tuchel’s squad has four points and can’t finish lower than third in the group. That’s the good news. The trickier part is that their opponent in the knockout stage shifts wildly based on whether they win the group or slip to second place.

Win the group and the door opens

If England takes care of business against Panama, they’ll draw one of the best third-place teams from Groups E, H, I, J, or K. That’s a wide net. At one point this week it looked like Portugal might be that opponent, which would’ve been a brutal rematch of that 2006 quarterfinal in Gelsenkirchen. But Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal stomped Uzbekistan 5-0 on Tuesday, jumping to second in Group K with a fat goal difference.

Right now the most likely matchup for a group-winning England is Senegal. DR Congo is also in the mix. Neither team is a pushover, but both are more manageable than some of the alternatives.

Finish second and things get real

Should England stumble and end up as Group L runners-up, they’d face the second-place team from Group K. That’s currently projected to be Colombia, but Portugal is very much still in play there too. The Euro 2016 champions are sitting second with a superior goal difference to DR Congo, so nothing is locked in yet.

England’s margin of victory over Panama matters more than usual because of FIFA’s head-to-head tiebreaker rule. Goal difference won’t decide the group winner if England and Ghana end up level on points. The head-to-head result between them does. That 0-0 draw means England can still lose top spot if Ghana beats Croatia and makes up enough ground on goal difference.

So a big win tonight wouldn’t just feel good. It would be a safety net.

England has only made one World Cup final in its history, back in 1966. Tuchel is trying to get that second star on the shirt. The next few hours will tell us a lot about whether that path runs through Senegal or something much scarier.