Arch Manning is the face of college football in 2026. He’s the Heisman favorite. He’s the projected No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft. And as Texas rolls into another season ranked near the top of every preseason poll, the hype is louder than ever.
But there’s a crack in the armor, and ESPN’s Bill Connelly found it in the data.
Manning was quietly dominant in the second half of last season after a rocky start. But his numbers outside the pocket tell a different story. Connelly noted that Manning ranked 82nd in completion percentage when throwing on the run (49.2%) and 94th in completion rate while moving (48.6%). For a guy with his athletic ability, that stat stands out like a sore thumb.
It’s a weird hole in his game. Manning can run. He can scramble. He can buy time. But once his feet leave the platform, his accuracy drops off a cliff. Defenses that can force him off his spot — think Georgia, Alabama, maybe Ohio State in the playoff — will try to exploit that.
Steve Sarkisian isn’t blind to it. Texas reloaded this offseason with one of the best transfer portal hauls in the country. Hollywood Smothers at running back. Cam Coleman at wide receiver. Manning won’t lack for weapons. The hope is that with a full season of starting experience under his belt, the game slows down and those on-the-move throws improve naturally.
Manning has a lightning-quick release that NFL scouts love. He’s one of the most athletic quarterbacks in the country. His arm talent isn’t the question. It’s the mechanics and the decision-making when he’s on the move that need work.
If he cleans that up, the ceiling is sky-high. Texas could start the season as the No. 1 team in the AP poll for the second year in a row. Manning could run away with the Heisman. And NFL teams will line up for the chance to draft him.
But if he doesn’t improve outside the pocket, the Longhorns might hit a wall before they reach Atlanta. And everyone will be looking at that one stat as the reason why.
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