The Las Vegas Raiders are heading into a new era with Klint Kubiak as head coach and Francisco Mendoza under center. But not everyone is thrilled with how they’ve spent their money this offseason.
ESPN’s Seth Walder took a hard look at the contract the Raiders gave defensive end Kwity Paye — three years, $48 million — and he didn’t hold back. He called it one of the worst free agent deals across the entire NFL.
“The Raiders also dished out $16 million per year to Paye in what I thought was one of the worst free agency contracts this offseason,” Walder wrote. “Paye ranked last among qualifying edge rushers in pass rush win rate.”
Paye spent four seasons with the Indianapolis Colts after they drafted him in the first round. He’s played 75 games and started 74 of them. His career numbers are decent enough: 209 tackles, 50 quarterback hits and 30.5 sacks. But the advanced metrics tell a different story.
Last season, Paye put up 39 tackles, nine quarterback hits and four sacks across 17 games. Not terrible. But Pro Football Focus gave him a 59 overall grade, which ranked 86th out of 115 edge rushers. His run defense grade was a respectable 65.8 (43rd). His pass rush grade? 56.8. That ranked 97th.
Why the Raiders paid up anyway
The Raiders needed pass rush help bad before the Maxx Crosby trade fell apart. Even with Paye on the roster, Las Vegas managed just 37 sacks last season — better than only 13 other teams. Not exactly elite company.
So the logic was there: add a body, hope he produces. But $16 million a year for a guy who’s been average at best against the pass? That’s the part that has analysts scratching their heads.
Paye is walking into a situation where expectations are high. Walder doesn’t think he’ll meet them based on what we’ve seen so far. But that’s the thing about contracts in the NFL — they’re forward-looking bets, and sometimes the market just pays more than the tape suggests.
The Raiders are betting Paye can take a step forward in a new system. If he doesn’t, this deal is going to look even worse in a year. But if he proves Walder wrong, it’s a steal. That’s the gamble.
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