Dak Prescott’s $240 million contract. One first-round pick. Bill Barnwell did the math.

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell spent some time thinking about what would happen if the Dallas Cowboys actually tried to trade Dak Prescott. The answer is complicated, messy, and probably not what Jerry Jones wants to hear.

Barnwell floated the idea that Prescott’s trade value on the open market would land somewhere around one first-round draft pick plus additional assets. That’s a surprisingly modest return for a quarterback coming off arguably the best regular season of his career. But the four-year, $240 million extension Prescott signed is the problem. It’s the most player-friendly contract in the league, and Barnwell pointed out that it exists because Jones mishandled Prescott’s free agency back in 2019 and 2020.

Prescott played like an MVP last season. He was throwing to CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and a deep rotation of wide receivers who made life miserable for defensive coordinators. The offense was elite. The defense? Not so much. Dallas missed the playoffs for the second straight year because the other side of the ball never caught up.

What makes Prescott valuable (and complicated)

Barnwell also mentioned something that tends to get overlooked. Prescott has been remarkably consistent for a full decade. He’s not going anywhere. He shows up, he produces, he leads. For franchises that have spent years searching for a reliable starter, that kind of stability matters. It’s the reason someone would trade for that contract despite the cap hit.

But here’s the thing. Prescott has a no-trade clause. So none of this matters unless he agrees to waive it. And there’s no indication he would. He’s been the face of the Cowboys since he took over as a rookie. The organization has never seriously explored moving on from him, and they’re not likely to start now.

Prescott’s playoff record isn’t great. That’s the one knock on his resume that keeps coming up. But the Cowboys don’t exactly have a better option walking through the door. And with the season starting September 13 against the Giants, they’re rolling with No. 4.

Barnwell’s thought experiment is interesting. It just probably stays a thought experiment.