Last season, Brian Schottenheimer basically got a mulligan. The Cowboys traded Micah Parsons before the season, the defense was a disaster, and pretty much nobody in Dallas expected to make noise. So when the offense exploded and the team went 15-2 and finally got back to the NFC Championship game, it felt like a free roll. Schottenheimer could call that a rookie-coach success even if the defense was the worst in the league by a mile.
But 2026 is not 2025. And the difference is about more than just a new calendar.
Let’s start with what changed. The Cowboys defense allowed 30.1 points per game last year. That’s historically bad. But even if they just get to mediocre — say, 22nd in the league — the math flips. If Dallas can hold opponents to even 24 points a game instead of 30, and the offense stays anywhere close to what it was, you’re looking at a team that could win 13 or 14 games. That’s the optimism.
The other side: Schottenheimer now has expectations. Real ones. Jerry Jones doesn’t do patient. He does Super Bowl or bust, and he does it loud. The owner absorbed most of the criticism last season for trading Parsons and rolling with a patchwork defense. But this offseason, the Cowboys made moves. They brought in help up front. They drafted Caleb Downs to stabilize the secondary. DeMarvion Overshown is healthy. The line should be solid even after losing Osa Odighizuwa. Nobody’s calling this a top-five defense, but it won’t be a bottom-five one either. And if you’re a head coach in Dallas with an average defense and an offense that averaged 28 points a game, you don’t get to blame the other side of the ball anymore.
There’s also the George Pickens factor. He was a revelation last season — top-five receiver production while sharing targets with CeeDee Lamb. But now he’s playing on the franchise tag, and he’s not quiet about wanting to get paid. Schottenheimer has to keep both receivers happy while the game plan shifts. Defensive coordinators have a full season of tape on Pickens now. They’ll scheme to take him away. That might mean more for Lamb, but Pickens won’t be thrilled playing second fiddle while his future money is at stake. That’s a coaching problem, not a talent problem.
And the schedule commissioner didn’t do Schottenheimer any favors. The NFC East is a war zone. Philadelphia is still loaded. Washington is on the rise. The Giants are rebuilding but get two cracks at Dallas every year. Home playoff games are not guaranteed.
Here’s the bottom line as straightforward as it gets: Schottenheimer needs 12 regular-season wins and at least one playoff victory. If he gets 10 or 11 wins but wins two playoff games, that probably works too. But 9-8 and a wild-card exit? That gets a coach fired in Dallas. Dak Prescott turns 33 this summer. His window with Lamb and Pickens together might only be one more year before the cap forces tough decisions. Every season wasted now is a season Prescott can’t get back.
The pressure is different this year. It’s not about surprising people anymore. It’s about delivering. And in Jerry Jones’s world, delivering means winning in January.
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