The NHL Draft is supposed to be about prospects, not trades. But this year, the biggest story before a single pick is announced might already be the Brady Tkachuk deal. The Florida Panthers sent two first-rounders to Ottawa for the star winger on Sunday, and the ripple effect is still being felt across the mock draft community.
Buffalo and San Jose swapped picks in the 20s last week too, which didn’t help anyone trying to keep the order straight. By the time Friday rolls around at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, there’s a real chance more moves happen. Teams are restless. This draft class is deep but flat in the middle, and general managers love to gamble when the talent pool gets muddy after the first half-dozen names.
Here’s our eighth mock of the season, and we’ll have one more just before the real thing starts.
1. Toronto Maple Leafs — Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State (NCAA)
No surprises here. McKenna has been the consensus No. 1 all year and nothing changed in the last week. The Nittany Lion star is expected to walk into Toronto and immediately give the Leafs a top-six forward who can grow alongside Auston Matthews and William Nylander. The hype is real, and the tape backs it up.
2. San Jose Sharks — Ivar Stenberg, LW, Frolunda HC (SHL)
San Jose could grab a defenseman here, and they probably need one. But Stenberg is the kind of forward who changes how you build a team. Pairing him with Macklin Celebrini for the next decade makes the Sharks scary in ways they haven’t been since the Joe Thornton era. He’s that good.
3. Vancouver Canucks — Caleb Malhotra, C, Brantford Bulldogs (OHL)
His dad Manny is the new Canucks head coach, which is the obvious angle. But Caleb Malhotra is the best center in this class on his own merit. Vancouver is clearly in rebuild mode, and this pick gives them a legitimate franchise pivot to build around.
4. Chicago Blackhawks — Alberts Smits, LD, Red Bull Munich (DEL)
The Blackhawks have spent recent first-round picks on defensemen like Kevin Korchinski and Artyom Levshunov. Smits doesn’t have their offensive ceiling, but he’s a steady top-pairing guy who won’t hurt you. Chicago needs to stop bleeding goals, and this pick helps.
5. New York Rangers — Chase Reid, RD, Soo Greyhounds
Our previous mocks had the Rangers taking Keaton Verhoeff here, but we’ve warmed up to Reid’s game. He’s a confident skater who involves himself in every play. New York’s blue line needs an infusion of high-end talent, and Reid fits the bill.
6. Calgary Flames — Keaton Verhoeff, RD, North Dakota (NCAA)
Calgary would love a forward to fall, but if Stenberg is gone by pick 6, Verhoeff is widely viewed as the best defenseman in the draft. He joins Zayne Parekh to give the Flames a potential top-pairing tandem down the road.
7. Seattle Kraken — Dax Rudolph, RD, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL)
Seattle has never taken a defenseman in the first round. That changes here. Rudolph has a rocket of a shot and elite hockey sense. The Kraken need defensive depth badly, and Rudolph projects as a top-four guy.
8. Winnipeg Jets — Viggo Bjorck, RW, Djurgardens IF (SHL)
Bjorck might play center or wing, but he’ll add skill either way. Winnipeg needs to restock its forward pipeline, and this Swedish playmaker provides a solid building block for the post-Scheifele era.
9. Ottawa Senators (from FLA) — Tynan Lawrence, C, Boston University (NCAA)
The first pick from the Tkachuk trade. Lawrence had an uneven freshman year at BU but finished strong. Ottawa needs a center, and Lawrence has the tools to be a top-six guy if his development curve keeps trending up.
10. Nashville Predators — Oliver Suvanto, C, Tappara (Liiga)
Suvanto plays a heavy, two-way game with some flash mixed in. His play away from the puck is already NHL-caliber. If he adds more offense, this could be a steal in the top 10.
11. St. Louis Blues — Ryan Lin, RD, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
Lin is undersized but his decision-making is elite. The Blues would have preferred a center here, but Bjorck and Suvanto went off the board. Lin’s ceiling is a solid second-pairing defenseman if he develops physically.
12. New Jersey Devils — Ethan Belchetz, LW, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)
Belchetz’s stock is all over the map. Some scouts see a top-10 talent, others aren’t sure he’s a first-rounder. He attacks defenders with relentless confidence and has the skill to back it up. An injury in March might push him down, but the upside is real.
13. New York Islanders — Adam Novotny, LW, Peterborough Petes (OHL)
Novotny doesn’t have one elite trait, but he does everything well. He’s sometimes called a power forward, but his offensive instincts are underrated. The Islanders’ pipeline needs this kind of steady, skilled addition.
14. Columbus Blue Jackets — Oscar Hemming, LW, Boston College (NCAA)
Hemming started slow at BC, then exploded, then cooled off. A full college season will give a clearer picture. His size-speed-skill combo is good enough to gamble on in the middle of the first round.
15. St. Louis Blues (from DET) — Alexander Command, C, Orebro HK (SHL)
The Blues double down on centers with this pick acquired in the Justin Faulk trade. Command is a classic high-floor guy who makes his linemates better. He won’t wow you, but he also won’t bust.
16. Washington Capitals — Jack Hextall, C, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL)
Washington needs centers badly, and Hextall brings good skill and work ethic. He projects as a middle-six pivot who can contribute in multiple ways.
17. Los Angeles Kings — Nikita Klepov, RW, Saginaw Spirit (OHL)
With Anze Kopitar retired, the Kings need playmakers. Klepov was the star of a mediocre Saginaw team and has one of the best vision games in this class. He’s a top-six winger in the making.
18. Washington Capitals (from ANA) — Markus Ruck, C, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)
The Capitals go center again. Ruck carried the load for Medicine Hat after McKenna left, but a poor WHL playoffs might scare some teams off. The playmaking talent is there, though.
19. Utah Mammoth — Xavier Villeneuve, LD, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)
Utah’s blue line is solid, but they lack a power-play quarterback. Villeneuve fills that need and gives the Mammoth an offensive defenseman who can run the man advantage.
20. Buffalo Sabres (from SJ/EDM) — Nikita Shcherbakov, LD, Tolpar Ufa (KHL)
Buffalo’s prospect pool is deep, but the left side of the defense could use a boost. Shcherbakov is huge, strong, and mobile. His decision-making needs work, but the raw tools are there.
21. Philadelphia Flyers — William Hakansson, LD, Lulea HF (SHL)
The Flyers need left-handed defensemen, and Hakansson is a favorite among scouts. He’s a pure shutdown guy who can neutralize top lines. If he develops any offense, this is a steal.
22. Pittsburgh Penguins — Maddox Dagenais, C, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL)
Pittsburgh’s center depth behind Crosby and Malkin is alarming. Dagenais is reliable, smart, and had a strong QMJHL playoff run. He’s not a star, but he could be a solid middle-six option.
23. Boston Bruins — Tommy Bleyl, RD, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL)
Bleyl scored 81 points as a rookie and uses his skill to frustrate defenses. NHL Central Scouting hasn’t been high on him, but the tape says first-round talent. Boston adds more skill after grabbing James Hagens last year.
24. Vancouver Canucks (from MIN) — Carson Carels, LD, Prince George Cougars (WHL)
We’re lower on Carels than most. He’s raw, his stick play needs work, and his decision-making is inconsistent. But the tools are there, and someone will take a swing on him in the first round.
25. Ottawa Senators (from FLA/SEA/TBL) — Elton Hermansson, RW, MoDo Hockey (HockeyAllsvenskan)
Another pick from the Tkachuk deal. Hermansson generates offense consistently but could use more urgency. The Swedish forward has a lot of traits that translate to the NHL game.
26. New York Rangers (from CAR/DAL) — Ilia Morozov, C, Miami University (NCAA)
The Rangers grabbed a defenseman at 5, now they take a flier on one of the youngest players in the draft. Morozov is calm, smart, and already led Miami as a freshman. There’s untapped upside here.
27. San Jose Sharks (from BUF) — Malte Gustafsson, LD, HV71 (SHL)
San Jose grabbed Stenberg earlier, now they address defense. Gustafsson isn’t flashy, but he moves well and transitions the puck effectively. He could grow into a top-four role.
28. Montreal Canadiens — JP Hurlbert, LW, Kamloops Blazers (WHL)
Hurlbert’s stock fell hard this season, but he scored 42 goals as a rookie in the CHL. His speed and off-puck play need work. The scoring touch alone makes him worth a late first-round gamble.
29. St. Louis Blues (from NYI/COL) — Mathis Preston, RW, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
Preston was once a top-10 prospect but dropped after a midseason trade. A strong U18 Worlds performance for Canada helped rebuild his stock. The Blues take a swing on the upside.
30. Calgary Flames (from VGK) — Ryder Cali, C, North Bay Battalion (OHL)
Cali makes his first appearance in our mock. He’s big, physical, and effective with or without the puck. His production didn’t blow anyone away, but he could develop into a pesky middle-six center with decent playmaking.
31. Carolina Hurricanes — Juho Piiparinen, RD, Tappara (Liiga)
The reigning Stanley Cup champs add a pure shutdown defenseman. Piiparinen’s defensive game is elite, and Carolina’s offensive-minded blue line would pair well with his style.
32. Ottawa Senators — Chase Harrington, LW, Spokane Chiefs (WHL)
Harrington ends the first round as part of an NHL ruling tied to the Evgenii Dadonov trade. He’s a relentless hitter who still manages nearly a point-per-game. He projects as a high-energy middle-six forward who could chip in 40-60 points annually.
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