At 36, John Carlson Could Land a Raise — and $10 Million AAV Is Not Off the Table

John Carlson just turned 36 years old. He’s also about to get paid like he’s 26.

After a midseason trade from Washington to Anaheim, the veteran defenseman didn’t just hold his own — he thrived. And according to reports from NHL insider Frank Seravalli, that performance could earn Carlson a contract north of $9.5 million per season in free agency. That would represent a raise from the $8 million AAV he earned over the last eight years with the Capitals.

The Numbers Behind the Buzz

Seravalli, speaking on a recent broadcast, laid out the math bluntly: “John Carlson’s gonna get paid. I can tell you right now, from the teams that I’ve talked to… The teams that are gonna be in the mix, are teams that wanna win, have a chance to win, and can pay.” His ballpark for Carlson: a three-year deal at $9.5 million per year — potentially climbing as high as $10 million.

That projection stands in stark contrast to the estimate from AFP Analytics, which pegged Carlson at around $7 million AAV over three seasons. But Seravalli was emphatic that the market will push higher. “That’s one of the stories of this offseason, is how much John Carlson is going to make in AAV,” he added. “It’s probably going to blow some people’s minds.”

Why the Jump?

Carlson’s age — he’ll turn 37 during the 2026-27 season — would typically suppress a free agent’s value. But the combination of his consistent production, experience in high-leverage situations, and a thin crop of available defensemen has created a perfect storm. The Capitals and Carlson were reportedly discussing a two-year extension worth around $9 million AAV before the trade. That deal never materialized. Now, the open market could deliver something even richer.

The Ducks liked what they saw from Carlson down the stretch, and a return to Anaheim remains possible. So does a reunion with Washington, where he spent his entire 17-year career before the deal. Other contenders with cap space, such as Detroit, Seattle, or even a dark horse like Nashville, could enter the fray with competitive offers.

For a player who has logged over 1,100 regular-season games and won a Stanley Cup in 2018, the next contract represents a rare second act — one that might redefine how the league values veteran defensemen. The free agency window opens July 1 at 12 p.m. ET. Expect Carlson’s agent to field calls from the opening bell.