Arch Manning has been the face of Texas football, the guy with the famous last name who led the Longhorns to a strong finish in 2025. But when longtime NFL Draft analyst Todd McShay dropped his 2027 big board this week, Manning wasn’t sitting at No. 1. He wasn’t No. 2 either. Or even No. 3.
McShay has Oregon’s Dante Moore as his top quarterback for the 2027 draft class. Moore is a dual-threat guy who can beat you with his legs and his arm. That pick isn’t the big surprise. The real head-scratcher? South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers at No. 2. McShay said Sellers has “the tools to be an elite NFL QB due to his size and speed.” Notre Dame’s CJ Carr checks in at No. 3. That leaves Manning at No. 4.
Let’s be clear about something: Manning’s 2025 numbers were legit. In 13 games, he threw for 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns. He also ran for 399 yards and 10 scores. He got hot late in the season and helped Texas make a run. So seeing Sellers, who posted lower production across the board, ranked ahead of him feels odd.
Why McShay sees Sellers and Moore ahead of Manning
McShay didn’t bury Manning in his write-up. He acknowledged the pressure Manning has dealt with since high school and said he expects the Texas QB to lead a title run this fall. But the ranking is clearly about potential over production. Sellers has the raw physical tools that scouts drool over — 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, can move like a running back. Moore has the kind of arm talent that makes evaluators ignore shaky accuracy at times.
Manning isn’t the only one getting bumped down on draft boards. Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt also has Moore at the top of his quarterback rankings. So this isn’t just one guy’s hot take. There’s a growing sense among some evaluators that Manning, for all his pedigree and solid play, might not be the automatic franchise QB everyone assumed he’d become.
Manning will be back running Steve Sarkisian’s offense in 2026. Texas will likely start the season ranked in the top 25, and all the hype will follow him. But if he wants to lock down that No. 1 QB spot in the 2027 class, he’ll need to do more than just finish strong. He’ll need to dominate from week one.
The NFL Draft is still a long way off. A lot can change between now and 2027. But for a guy named Manning who’s supposed to be the next great quarterback, sitting at No. 4 on a draft board is a wake-up call.
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