The Baltimore Orioles have a decision to make on Adley Rutschman, and the clock is ticking louder than it should be for a guy who just made his third All-Star team.
Rutschman hits free agency after 2027. That’s not that far away. And right now, the Orioles (42-49) are stuck in the middle of the AL East, closer to last place than first. They’re also just three and a half games out of a Wild Card spot, but this doesn’t feel like a team ready to make a run. So do they extend their catcher now, or do they wait and risk losing him?
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic laid out the two paths. On one side you’ve got Cal Raleigh’s six-year, $105 million deal with Seattle, signed before he launched 60 homers in 2025. That’s the kind of team-friendly extension that locks up a good player at a fair price. But Rutschman might not bite.
Because on the other side, you’ve got Buster Posey’s nine-year, $167 million extension with the Giants from 2013. Or Will Smith’s 10-year, $140 million deal with the Dodgers, though Rosenthal points out that one was structured more for luxury-tax flexibility than pure player value. Rutschman’s camp is probably looking at the Posey deal as the real benchmark.
Here’s the thing though. Rutschman hasn’t been Posey. He hasn’t been Raleigh either, at least not with the power numbers. The guy is a two-way catcher who frames pitches well and throws out runners, no question. But his bat has been streaky. Through 254 plate appearances this season he’s hitting .254 with eight homers, 45 RBIs and an OPS of .774. That’s solid. That’s not superstar money.
Rosenthal wrote that Rutschman “would probably want a deal that makes him a lifetime Oriole, or close to it.” That sounds nice. But the Orioles also have Samuel Basallo, a 22-year-old catching prospect who signed a $67 million extension last summer that runs through 2033. He’s waiting in the wings.
Baltimore has other worries too. The team is uneven. The pitching is spotty. The division is brutal. And the front office has to decide whether Rutschman is worth a nine-figure commitment or if they should let someone else pay him when he hits the open market. That’s not an easy call when you’re hovering around .500 and your best catcher hasn’t exactly carried the team on his back.
The Orioles host the Cubs (50-40) starting Tuesday. Maybe that series gives everyone a clearer picture. Or maybe it just makes the math harder.
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