The first round of group play at the 2026 World Cup is in the books, and already a handful of pre-tournament predictions have aged like milk left out in the Qatar heat.
Some of these takes were optimistic. Some were dismissive. A few were just flat wrong. Let’s run through the five that stand out most so far.
Messi Is Too Old? Yeah, No.
Heading into this tournament, a lot of analysts figured Lionel Messi at 38 and playing in MLS would finally be a step behind. The logic made sense on paper. But Messi doesn’t play on paper.
He scored a hat trick in Argentina’s opening match. First goal was that trademark curling shot into the far corner. Second was the kind of slow-motion dribble where defenders look like they’re moving through honey. Third was another precision finish. Argentina’s defense looked shaky at times, but having Messi on the field is basically a cheat code. Turns out Father Time hasn’t caught up yet.
Spain Was the Clear Favorite. Then Cape Verde Happened.
Spain came in as the European champion and the betting favorite for a reason. But their opener against Cape Verde — ranked 67th in the world — ended in a 0-0 draw that felt anything but inevitable.
Cape Verde deserves credit. They defended well and didn’t buckle. But Spain’s problem was self-inflicted. They took 27 shots and put only seven on target. Mikel Oyarzabal, a guy some had pegged for the Golden Boot, went 30 minutes without a single touch of the ball. That’s not a stat you expect from a favorite. No need to panic yet, but the aura of invincibility is gone.
Ronaldo Is Still a Problem Portugal Can’t Solve
Portugal has a squad loaded with talent including the core of PSG’s Champions League winners. That alone made them a trendy pick. But their 1-1 draw with DR Congo exposed a hard truth: Cristiano Ronaldo is a black hole in attack at this stage.
He had three shots. All went wide. He had fewer touches in the box than a guy who came on at halftime. And yet coach Roberto Martinez made it clear Ronaldo isn’t going anywhere. When asked about benching him, Martinez said, and I quote: ‘It makes no sense to get the best goal scorer in world football out in a game that you need goals.’ That’s a problem. Martinez is reportedly close to joining Ronaldo’s club Al-Nassr, so maybe that explains the loyalty. But Portugal sacrificed midfield balance to keep Ronaldo happy, pulling Vitinha for Goncalo Ramos when they needed a goal. The rest of the squad is good enough to win. The question is whether they can do it in spite of their captain.
Germany Was a Dark Horse? They Just Scored Seven.
Some people had Germany pegged as a dark horse, which feels disrespectful for a program that won this thing in 2014. Sure, they’ve been uneven since then. But their opening game against Curacao was a 7-0 statement with six different goal scorers.
Florian Wirtz looks reborn compared to his Liverpool form. Jamal Musiala runs things from the No. 10 spot. Kai Havertz already has two goals. The defense still needs work, but the attacking talent is legit. Anyone who wrote Germany off might want to reconsider.
The 48-Team Format Isn’t Producing Blowouts After All
The expanded field was widely criticized as a money grab by FIFA, and the fear was that we’d see a bunch of double-digit routs. So far, that hasn’t happened. Curacao got hammered by Germany, but that’s the exception rather than the rule.
New Zealand, the lowest-ranked team in the tournament, opened with a draw. Haiti lost by one goal. Ghana beat Panama. And Cape Verde pulled off one of the biggest World Cup shocks ever by holding Spain to a goalless draw. The smaller teams haven’t embarrassed themselves, which is more than a lot of critics expected.
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