ARLINGTON, Texas — The math says England should win this one. The history books tell a different story, and Thomas Tuchel knows which one matters more.
When England steps onto the pitch at Dallas Stadium for their World Cup opener, they’ll face a Croatia squad that has spent the better part of two decades carving its name into English nightmares. Three competitive tournament eliminations since 2008. A semifinal knockout in Moscow that sent Gareth Southgate’s dream team home in tears. A qualifying win at Wembley that still stings.
And yet, the conventional wisdom is that Croatia isn’t what it used to be.
Luka Modric is 40. Ivan Perisic is 37. Andrej Kramaric is 34. Mateo Kovacic, at 32, is practically the kid in the room. The golden generation that reached the 2018 World Cup final and finished third in 2022 is losing its legs, one legend at a time. Croatia lost to Brazil last week and fell at home to a similarly aging Belgium side just two weeks ago. Their head coach, Zlatko Dalic, admitted last week in Varazdin that this match has the potential to “destroy everything” for his team at this World Cup.
That’s not the kind of confidence you usually hear from a nation that has made a habit of punching above its weight.
But here’s the thing about a wounded rival: they’re often the most dangerous kind. England’s analysts have spent more time prepping for Croatia’s tactical shifts — moving from a 4-3-3 into a back three with Modric and Kovacic as a two-man midfield — than for any other opponent in Group L. Tuchel described the shift as a change in Croatia’s “center of gravity.”
“I think it is quite obvious that they still have their core,” Tuchel said of Modric and the remaining figures of that legendary generation. They’re still hanging around, still hoping to land one final hammer blow on England.
The stakes are enormous. England is favored, but they know Croatia represents the single biggest threat to dropping points in their group. Ghana and Panama are on the schedule, but neither carries the emotional weight or tactical complexity of this matchup. This is the tenth competitive meeting between the two nations in 22 years — a rivalry that has become the most storied battle of England’s 21st century.
It started at Euro 2004, when Sven-Goran Eriksson’s team won 4-2 against a Croatia side featuring a young Igor Tudor. It escalated in 2007, when Croatia beat England home and away to knock them out of Euro 2008 qualification on a rain-soaked night at Wembley that still makes English fans wince. And it reached its peak in 2018, when Croatia sent an entire nation into despair in the World Cup semifinals.
Now, with Tuchel at the helm and a squad that believes it can go deep in this tournament, England has a chance to flip the narrative. But history doesn’t erase easily. Croatia has dished out enough hurt over the years that no one in the England camp — not the analysts, not the players, not the manager — is taking them lightly.
The preparation is done. The decisions have been made. Now it’s time to see if this generation of English talent can do what no other has managed: bury the ghost of Croatia once and for all.
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