The World Cup is finally here, and while the trophy is the ultimate prize, the Golden Boot race is already shaping up to be one of the tournament’s juiciest subplots. Kylian Mbappe won it in 2022 with eight goals—including a hat-trick in the final loss to Argentina. Harry Kane won it four years before that with six. Now, both are back, and the oddsmakers have them as the top two favorites.
But this year’s list of contenders stretches far beyond the usual suspects, and a few dark horses could shake things up.
Mbappe Leads the Pack at 6/1
Mbappe just finished another prolific season at Real Madrid, even if the silverware didn’t follow. Playing alongside France’s deep pool of world-class talent, it’s hard to bet against him getting plenty of chances in front of goal. The bookies have him at 6/1—the shortest odds on the board.
Kane Is Right Behind Him at 7/1
Harry Kane shows no signs of slowing down. At 32, he’s still England’s most important player and a lethal finisher. The question is whether Thomas Tuchel’s squad—which feels a notch below the 2018 and 2022 versions—can create enough for him. Still, 7/1 feels like value for a man who’s won this before.
Spain’s Oyarzabal and Yamal Offer Value
Mikel Oyarzabal isn’t the flashiest name on this list, but he’s proven he can lead the line for Spain, one of the tournament favorites. At 10/1, he’s an interesting bet. Meanwhile, Lamine Yamal—Spain’s teenage sensation—is priced at 25/1. He’s more creator than scorer, but those odds might be tempting if Spain goes deep.
Haaland Could Be Norway’s Wild Card
Erling Haaland at 16/1 is turning heads. Norway isn’t a traditional powerhouse, but the Manchester City striker scored 16 goals in qualifying—every single game he played. If Norway makes a run, Haaland will be the reason. That’s decent value for a player who scores for fun.
Messi and Ronaldo: Old Legends, New Questions
Lionel Messi (16/1) isn’t the goal machine he once was, but underestimating him has burned people before. Cristiano Ronaldo (20/1) is 41 years old and playing in what’s almost certainly his final World Cup. Expect him to play with the desperation of a man chasing one last piece of glory.
Alvarez, Havertz, and Raphinha Round It Out
Julian Alvarez (20/1) has been prolific for Atletico Madrid and could emerge as Argentina’s main goal threat behind Messi. Kai Havertz (22/1) is Mr. Reliable for Germany—and he actually had more rest than most after missing time with injury. Raphinha (28/1) is one of the most dangerous wingers in the game right now, and if Brazil clicks, he could be a factor.
The Golden Boot race is wide open. But if history tells us anything, don’t bet against the guys who’ve already done it.
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