Caleb Williams hasn’t signed the extension yet, but the whispers are already getting louder. And according to one longtime NFL insider, the floor for those negotiations might start somewhere around half a billion dollars.
Mike Florio of NBC Sports recently laid out what he expects to happen when the Chicago Bears quarterback becomes eligible for a new deal. And the comparison he used is enough to make any front office pause: Patrick Mahomes.
The Mahomes Factor
“When the time comes for Williams to get a new deal, the Mahomes number will drive the discussion,” Florio wrote. “Especially if Williams continues to be on a trajectory that could put him among the top four or five quarterbacks in football.”
That’s a heavy benchmark for a player who has yet to complete his third NFL season. Mahomes signed a 10-year, $450 million extension in 2020 that reshaped the quarterback market. Since then, players like Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson have all reset the ceiling. Williams could be next.
Florio also suggested Williams might push for a deal sooner rather than later. “We’ve already heard talk of Williams having expectations that would be more than eye-popping,” he added. “And we also expect that Williams will make it known that he wants his contract not after the 2026 postseason ends, but promptly upon the opening of the window for a new deal after the Bears face the Vikings in Week 18.”
Don’t Hand Him the Check Just Yet
None of this means Williams is cashing in this offseason. The team has not confirmed any contract discussions, and the quarterback still has plenty to prove. Last season, Williams played efficient football but wasn’t asked to carry the offense. Head coach Ben Johnson built a run-first attack that leaned on D’Andre Swift and the offensive line. Williams finished with solid but not gaudy numbers — good enough to win, not quite enough to demand Mahomes money.
But that’s exactly why the 2026 season matters so much. If Williams builds on his late-2025 surge and shows he can win games from the pocket, the Bears will have to pay up. If he stalls or regresses, Chicago may hold leverage they don’t have right now.
What This Means for Chicago
The Bears are coming off a playoff run nobody saw coming this soon. Ben Johnson has been hailed as the offensive savior, but Williams’ growth was the engine behind the team’s turnaround. After a rocky rookie year and a slow start in Year 2, he settled in down the stretch and showed the poise that made him the No. 1 overall pick.
Now comes the hard part: sustaining it. The Bears have high expectations heading into 2026, and Williams is the reason everyone in Chicago is dreaming big. If he delivers, the extension talk won’t be speculation anymore — it’ll be a countdown.
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