The Pittsburgh Steelers have one of the most dominant defensive players in the NFL in T.J. Watt. But a former teammate and Pro Bowl linebacker thinks that dominance will come to an end in black and gold — not because of performance, but because of the price tag.
James Harrison, who spent 14 seasons with the Steelers and won two Super Bowls, recently laid out a timeline for what he believes will be Watt’s departure. On the June 9 episode of the Deebo and Joe podcast, Harrison argued that a chain of moves points toward one conclusion: the Steelers will release Watt before the final year of his contract.
According to Harrison, the recent extension given to outside linebacker Nick Herbig is the first domino. Pittsburgh also inked Alex Highsmith to a four-year, $68 million deal in 2023. The result, in Harrison’s view, is a gradually shifting defensive core.
“Trading Highsmith is not going to happen because they just paid Herbig,” Harrison said. “I feel like it’s gonna be a transition over the next couple of years where we keep that group, and like I said, after that second year, when T.J.’s guarantee is done, I think he jumps to $40-something million that last year, and he’s going to be 34, 35, I think they release him.”
Harrison first floated this theory on his own podcast in early May, offering a more detailed breakdown of Watt’s contract. The numbers he cited are worth a closer look. According to publicly available contract data, Watt has $42 million in fully guaranteed salary cap hits for both 2026 and 2027. In 2028, the final year of his deal, his salary is not guaranteed — but a $15 million roster bonus becomes due three days into the new league year. At that point, Watt would be 34 years old.
“I don’t see him going anywhere unless they could potentially get something for him in a trade because I don’t see anybody taking a $42 million cap hit in each year,” Harrison said. “So, [2026] and [2027] is $42 million each, and that is fully guaranteed. Then, [2028], it’s not guaranteed, but he has a roster bonus that is due of $15 million on the third day of the new league year. I hate to say it, in all reality, I would see them releasing him in [2028], along with him being 34 at the time.”
Watt, the 2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, is coming off another Pro Bowl season with 19 sacks. He is widely considered one of the most disruptive pass rushers in the league. That said, the Steelers have a history of moving on from aging stars when the cap math no longer works — even franchise legends like Troy Polamalu and Ben Roethlisberger saw their tenures end before their contracts did.
Neither Watt nor the Steelers have commented on Harrison’s prediction. For now, it remains speculative — but it’s the kind of speculation that carries weight when it comes from someone who wore the same uniform and understands how the front office operates. The question fans are left with is not whether Watt is still elite, but whether his production in his mid-30s will justify a cap hit north of $40 million.
Given Pittsburgh’s track record, Harrison may not be wrong.
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